000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122131
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI AUG 12 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH 10N84W TO 08N98W TO LOW PRES 13N120W TO 11N130W. 
ITCZ AXIS 11N130W TO BEYOND 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED N OF 03N E OF 80W AND WITHIN 120 NM 
OF LINE 05N80W TO 08N108W...AND LINE 10N118W TO 10N126W. 

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 105W...
AN AREA OF RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVERS 
THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 25N W OF 128W WITH 
SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS OF UP TO 50 KT. 
WIND ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY OVER THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS. A LARGE ELONGATED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 26N126W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. 
THIS FEATURE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 118W AND 128W. 
OVER THE TROPICS A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT 
IS LOCATED S OF ABOUT 15N TO THE EQUATOR W OF 115W. THE LATEST 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 15N115W AND MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. 
AT THE SURFACE A 1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 13N120W AND IS 
MOVING W AT 10 KT. WITHIN 240 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT AND 90 NM 
OVER THE SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW WINDS ARE 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 
FT. ALSO SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
LOCATED WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH 32N133W TO NEAR 22N118W. 

E OF 105W...
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA E 
OF 105W WITH WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 KT. S OF 16N E OF 105W WINDS 
LESS THAN 20 KT WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.

$$
CAB