000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112130 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU AUG 11 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BORDER OF COSTA RICA AND COLOMBIA SW TO 6N81W...THEN WNW TO 7N90W TO 12N102W TO 13N110W AND TO A STATIONARY 1012 MB LOW AT 14.5N118W AND TO 14N127W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT IT TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ AXIS TO 13N135W AND SW TO BEYOND THE AREA AT 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 93W-100W...FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 93W-95W...AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 30 NM OF 9N112W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER FAR NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WNW TO NEAR 32N131W. AN E TO W UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WESTWARD TO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 22N125W. THE TROUGH THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 12N140W. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CONTINUING TO ADVECT UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE WESTWARD TO NEAR 112W FROM SOME CONVECTION THAT WAS ACTIVE EARLIER TODAY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ...AND FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO 20N-24N. SIMILAR MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS BEING ADVECTED WNW ALSO AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH TO THE AREA CONFINED TO N OF 23N AND E OF 130W. THE ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TO THE W OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA W OF 130W...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 24N130W TO AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 34N148W. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW TO THE S AND SW OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N136W SW TO NEAR 13N140W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE N OF 13N BETWEEN 130W-134W...AND ALSO NW OF LINE FROM 32N125W TO 25N131W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED N OF 22N E OF 126W...WHILE SIMILAR SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ARE PRESENT ELSEWHERE N OF 17N. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK CONVECTION ARE SEEN ELSEWHERE S OF 18N AND W OF 110W. A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS IDENTIFIED NEAR 18N118W WITH A NARROW RIDGE SW OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS TO NEAR 13N131W. WELL TO THE SE OF THIS FEATURE...AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N108W SSE TO 7N104W. THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE FROM THE NE-E...AND ARE PUSHING UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH WSW WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED FROM 4N-16N W OF 112W. SOME OF THE MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY SEEPING NWD AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 18N118W REACHING TO 20N AND W TO 127W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS NOTED FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 114W-130W. UPPER WINDS ARE LIGHTER TO THE E OF THE INVERTED UPPER TROUGH... AND FROM THE E-SE IN DIRECTION. OVERALL...CONDITIONS ALOFT NOT TOO CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZATION OF SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS INTO LOW PRES SYSTEMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION REGION FROM 32N140W SE TO 27N130W AND TO 24N122W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 22N AND W OF 122W. AN AREA OF MIXED SE AND SW SWELL...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT...IS LOCATED S OF 5N AND W OF 130W. THIS AREA OF SWELLS IS FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTHWARD AND DIMINISH FROM THE W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS ...WITH DIRECTION PRIMARILY FROM THE SW BUT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE RANGE OF 8-11 FT. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT AND SEAS ARE IN THE RATHER LOW RANGE. $$ AGUIRRE 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112130 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU AUG 11 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BORDER OF COSTA RICA AND COLOMBIA SW TO 6N81W...THEN WNW TO 7N90W TO 12N102W TO 13N110W AND TO A STATIONARY 1012 MB LOW AT 14.5N118W AND TO 14N127W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT IT TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ AXIS TO 13N135W AND SW TO BEYOND THE AREA AT 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 93W-100W...FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 93W-95W...AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 30 NM OF 9N112W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER FAR NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WNW TO NEAR 32N131W. AN E TO W UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WESTWARD TO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 22N125W. THE TROUGH THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 12N140W. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CONTINUING TO ADVECT UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE WESTWARD TO NEAR 112W FROM SOME CONVECTION THAT WAS ACTIVE EARLIER TODAY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ...AND FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO 20N-24N. SIMILAR MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS BEING ADVECTED WNW ALSO AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH TO THE AREA CONFINED TO N OF 23N AND E OF 130W. THE ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TO THE W OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA W OF 130W...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 24N130W TO AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 34N148W. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW TO THE S AND SW OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N136W SW TO NEAR 13N140W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE N OF 13N BETWEEN 130W-134W...AND ALSO NW OF LINE FROM 32N125W TO 25N131W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED N OF 22N E OF 126W...WHILE SIMILAR SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ARE PRESENT ELSEWHERE N OF 17N. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK CONVECTION ARE SEEN ELSEWHERE S OF 18N AND W OF 110W. A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS IDENTIFIED NEAR 18N118W WITH A NARROW RIDGE SW OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS TO NEAR 13N131W. WELL TO THE SE OF THIS FEATURE...AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N108W SSE TO 7N104W. THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE FROM THE NE-E...AND ARE PUSHING UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH WSW WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED FROM 4N-16N W OF 112W. SOME OF THE MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY SEEPING NWD AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 18N118W REACHING TO 20N AND W TO 127W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS NOTED FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 114W-130W. UPPER WINDS ARE LIGHTER TO THE E OF THE INVERTED UPPER TROUGH... AND FROM THE E-SE IN DIRECTION. OVERALL...CONDITIONS ALOFT NOT TOO CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZATION OF SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS INTO LOW PRES SYSTEMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION REGION FROM 32N140W SE TO 27N130W AND TO 24N122W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 22N AND W OF 122W. AN AREA OF MIXED SE AND SW SWELL...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT...IS LOCATED S OF 5N AND W OF 130W. THIS AREA OF SWELLS IS FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTHWARD AND DIMINISH FROM THE W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH DIRECTION PRIMARILY FROM THE SW BUT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE RANGE OF 8-11 FT. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT AND SEAS ARE IN THE RATHER LOW RANGE. $$ AGUIRRE