000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU AUG 11 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COSTA RICA WSW TO 9N94W ...THEN NW TO 13N105W AND TO STATIONARY 1010 MB LOW AT 15N116W. IT THEN CONTINUES SW TO 12.5N131W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT IT TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ AXIS TO 13N136W AND SW TO BEYOND 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 85W-100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W-93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W-130W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER FAR NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO NEAR 30N130W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS OVER THE BORDER OF SE TEXAS AND E OLD MEXICO WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING W ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ALONG 22N...AND SW TO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 22N125W WITH TROUGH CONTINUING SW TO 12N140W. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CONTINUING TO ADVECT UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE WESTWARD FROM CONVECTION THAT WAS ACTIVE OVER OLD NW MEXICO AND OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WED AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE WAS CONFINED TO N OF 23N AND E OF 130W. THE FORECAST HAS LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW CONUS AND THE UPPER TROUGH DISSECTING THE AREA...BUT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION ON THU. TO THE W OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA W OF 130W...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 24N130W TO AM ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 34N149W. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW TO THE S AND SW OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ENE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N136W SW TO NEAR 13N140W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE N OF 13N BETWEEN 130W-135W... .AND ALSO NW OF LINE FROM 32N125W TO 25N131W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED N OF 22N E OF 125W...WHILE SIMILAR SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ARE PRESENT ELSEWHERE N OF 17N. A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS IDENTIFIED NEAR 18N119W WITH A NARROW RIDGE SW OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS TO NEAR 13N131W. WELL TO THE SE OF THIS FEATURE ...AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N107W TO 5N106W. THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN BOTH OF THESE FEATURES IS NE-E...AND ARE PUSHING UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH WSW WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED FROM 4N-16N W OF 110W. OTHERWISE...MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS FOUND FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 114W-125W. UPPER WINDS ARE LIGHTER TO THE E OF THE INVERTED UPPER TROUGH... AND FROM THE E-SE IN DIRECTION. OVERALL...CONDITIONS ALOFT NOT TOO CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZATION OF SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS INTO LOW PRES SYSTEMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION REGION FROM 32N140W SE TO 27N130W AND TO 24N122W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 22N AND W OF 122W. AN AREA OF MIXED SE AND SW SWELL...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-10 FT...IS LOCATED S OF 5N AND W OF 93W. THIS AREA OF SWELLS IS FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTHWARD AND DIMINISH FROM THE W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS ...WITH DIRECTION PRIMARILY FROM THE SW BUT WAVE HEIGHT EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE RANGE OF 8-11 FT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 20 KT TODAY IN SE SWELL OVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 5N BETWEEN 112W-140W. $$ AGUIRRE