000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102145
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED AUG 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N79W TO 15N111W TO 13N125W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 
13N125W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 12N BETWEEN 80W AND 91W...WITHIN 120 NM 
OF LINE FROM 05N91W TO 09N105W...AND WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM
15N104W TO 08N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

STATIONARY HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N152W WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH THU NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE AS A LOW PRES TROUGH MOVES SE 
THROUGH SUN. THE RESULTING WEAKER PRES GRADIENT WILL INDUCE 
LIGHT TO MODERATE E-NE TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ 
AND W OF AROUND 120W. EXPECT WIND WAVES TO STEADILY SUBSIDE 
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 6-7 FT THIS 
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 4-5 FT BY SUN. 

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 125W AND THE 
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 125W IN DEEP TROPICS REMAINS 
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE...BUT SCATTEROMETER DATA TODAY CONTINUES TO SHOW 
VERY LIGHT WINDS ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND MONSOON TROUGH. 
NO TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 48-72 
HOURS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW USUAL LEVELS AT AROUND 
5-6 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR LONG PERIOD LARGE SWELL 
EXPECTED TO SWEEP NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EQUATOR STARTING TONIGHT 
E OF 110W. WW3 WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT 
S OF 05N BY THU NIGHT SPREADING N TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA BY FRI NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL