000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101515
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED AUG 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 11N90W TO 15N113W TO 09N137W THEN 
ITCZ AXIS TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM
S OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH FROM 124W TO 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

STATIONARY 1027 MB HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N152W WILL 
PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE AS A LOW PRES TROUGH 
MOVES SE THROUGH SUN. AS A RESULT OF WEAKER PRES GRADIENT E-NE 
TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF AROUND 120W 
WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AT 10-15 KT. WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL 
STEADILY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
FROM 6-7 FT THIS MORNING TO AROUND 4-5 FT BY SUN. 

CONVERGENCE ZONE IN DEEP TROPICS REMAINS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE BUT 
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT IN THE VICINITY
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. NO TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY 
WITHIN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BENIGN 
AT AROUND 6-7 FT ALL ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR LONG PERIOD LARGE SWELL EXPECTED TO SWEEP 
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EQUATOR STARTING TONIGHT...E OF 110W. WW3 
WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT S OF 05N BY THU 
NIGHT SPREADING N TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA BY FRI NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL