000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100942
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED AUG 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N79W TO 10N90W TO 15N116W TO 
09N137W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
09137W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 03N TO 07N E OF 80W AND ALSO FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 83W 
AND 88W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER EXTREME NW OLD MEXICO AT 
30N111W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W-SW TO A CREST AT 
25N130W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS W-SW FROM THE NW GULF OF 
MEXICO THROUGH 23N106W TO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AT 20N115W TO 
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AT 21N124W. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED 
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO UNDER THE RIDGE WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE 
BEING ADVECTED W OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF 20N E OF 125W. 
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THESE FEATURES THROUGH THU.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N101W 
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW-W TO 17N114W. SPORADIC CONVECTION 
EXISTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE ALONG 
THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH UPPER LEVEL NE-E WINDS ADVECTING DEBRIS 
CLOUDS WESTWARD FROM 10N TO 20N W OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS S OF 14N ALONG 95W AND IS 
MOVING W EXPECTED TO REACH 105W BY EARLY FRI. UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS 
MOISTURE IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 94W AND 120W.  

AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF EUGENE HAVE 
SHIFTED W OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A SMALL AREA OF LEFTOVER 8 FT 
SEAS EXISTS FROM 20N TO 24N W OF 137W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE 
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK AND BROAD RIDGE RUNS FROM 30N137W TO 
23N115W. 

A NEW SET OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL HAS BREACHED THE EQUATOR 
REACHING TO 02N BETWEEN 105W AND 125W. THIS SWELL WILL EXPAND 
AND BUILD THROUGH 48 HOURS REACHING TO 03N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W 
IN 24 HOURS...THEN TO 05N BETWEEN 80W AND 90W WHILE BUILDING TO 
10 FT AND ALSO TO 09N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. MEANWHILE...RECENT 
SCATTEROMETER PASSES HINTED AT AN AREA OF S-SW 20 KT WINDS S OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 117W AND 130W AND MODEL GUIDANCE 
DEPICTS AN AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS GENERATED BY THESE WINDS BETWEEN 
123W AND 132W IN 24 HOURS SUBSIDING SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

$$
LEWITSKY