000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100244 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED AUG 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0245 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... A MONSOON TROUGH PARALLELS THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST FROM COSTA RICA AT 09N83W TO 17N102W...THEN TURNS ABRUPTLY SW TO 13N112W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITHIN 60 NM OF 07N78W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N102W TO 11N106W TO 14N116W TO 08N135W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER EXTREME NW OLD MEXICO AT 31N111W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A CREST AT 16N138W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE NW GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH 23N106W TO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 17N111W TO ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE AT 20N123W. CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO UNDER THE RIDGE TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE NOW ADVECTED W OVER THE PACIFIC N OF 20N E OF 122W. LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THESE OTHER FEATURES THROUGH THU. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A CREST OVER THE PACIFIC AT 13N111W. THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT SHIFTS TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUING SW OVER THE PACIFIC JUST S OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED OVER MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FANNING OUT OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 15N TO 02N BETWEEN 100W AND 108W BUT NARROWING AS IT CONTINUES W OVER THE AREA BOUNDED BY 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 108W AND 135W. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS S OF 12N ALONG 90W AND EXPECTED TO MOVE W TO ALONG 100W BY THU. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 79W AND 85W. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANTS OF EUGENE IS JUST W OF THE AREA AT 18N141W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO NEAR 23N138W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N140W TO 22N115W. AN AREA OF MIXED SE AND SW SWELL...COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT...IS LOCATED S OF 14N BETWEEN 103W AND 125W. THESE CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT IN SE SWELL OVER THE DEEP TROPICS TO THE S OF 05N BETWEEN 115W AND 140W. $$ NELSON