000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090316
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE AUG 9 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 12N86W TO 11N98W TO 15N105W TO 10N124W. ITCZ 
AXIS FROM 10N124W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 90W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR 31N148W
IS NEARLY STATIONARY...WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW INDICATED N 
OF 20N W OF 130W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NW 
MEXICO NEAR 30N112W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVER NE PORTION N OF 20N E OF 120W. REMNANT LOW OF EUGENE 
LOCATED NEAR 20N137W BECOMING IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE AS
IT OPENS UP INTO A LOW PRES TROUGH. EXPECT WHATS LEFT OF EUGENE 
TO MOVE W OF 140W AS A TROUGH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WITH WINDS AND 
SEAS DROPPING BELOW 20 KT AND 8 FT HIGH SEAS CRITERIA. MODERATE 
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE DEEP TROPICS
S OF 10N W OF 100W BECOMES LIGHT OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N
TO 18N. A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT FROM ASCAT PASS 
AT 1715 UTC IS LOCATED NEAR 12N110W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A 
BROAD LOW PRES TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG 10N TO 12N E OF 130W 
WITH LITTLE OR NO POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

$$
MUNDELL