000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080916
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON AUG 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N86W TO 08N92W TO 14N106W TO 
08N124W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
08N124W TO 09N132W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 84W AND 90W AND ALSO 
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 94W AND 
99W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120-180 NM S OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 111W AND 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 21N TO 24N WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE 
MEXICAN COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS STATIONARY OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 
30N110W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE WATERS N OF 20N E OF 
135W. THE REMNANTS OF EUGENE HAVE ENCOUNTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
SOUTHERLY SHEAR ALOFT ON THE W PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE 
DISPLACING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WELL TO THE N OF THE LOW 
LEVEL CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST TO THE W STEMMING 
FROM AN UPPER CYCLONE NW OF THE AREA NEAR 30N147W TO A COL NEAR 
13N140W. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH REACHES FROM 20N117W TO 
12N119W MOVING W. OTHERWISE EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE 
MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

AT THE SURFACE...1032 MB HIGH PRES IS POSITIONED NW OF THE AREA 
NEAR 38N150W WITH AN ATTENDANT RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE 
AREA WITH A TERMINUS NEAR 23N122W. RECENT WINDSAT AND ASCAT 
SCATTEROMETER PASSES CAPTURED 20-30 KT WINDS WITHIN 240 NM IN 
THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE 1011 MB REMNANT LOW OF EUGENE... 
CENTERED NEAR 20.5N134W. AN EARLIER JASON ALTIMETER PASS PASSED 
NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER MEASURING 12 FT SEAS. THIS LOW IS 
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH IN 24 HOURS AS IT 
MOVES TO ALONG 137W WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT...THEN 
WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA BY 48 HOURS.

1010 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N116W 
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 20N112W. A 0440 
UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED SE-S 20 KT WINDS FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 
110W AND 120W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE W 
AROUND 10 KT DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING 
TO LESS THAN 20 KT.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS 
THE REGIONAL WATERS MAINLY S OF 10N AND W OF 105W WITH SEAS TO 9 
FT. THIS SWELL WILL BECOME CONFINED TO W OF 110W IN 24 HOURS... 
THEN TO S OF 03N BETWEEN 113W AND 130W IN 48 HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY