000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070948
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN AUG 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N86W TO 11N100W TO 10N120W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N120W TO 
09N125W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO POSITIONED 
NEAR 30N107W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ADVECTING CONVECTION THAT 
EARLIER FORMED OVER INLAND MEXICO TO THE W-SW WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MEXICAN COAST 
FROM 19N TO 23N. THIS ANTICYCLONE ALSO CONTINUES TO NUDGE THE 
REMNANTS OF EUGENE...LOCATED NEAR 20.5N131W 1008 MB OFF THE 
W-NW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS BLOCKED ALONG THE NW BORDER 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY THE ANTICYCLONE WHERE IT WILL REMAIN 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
AND EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EUGENE HAD INCREASED 
DURING LATE SAT ALTHOUGH IS NOW ONCE AGAIN ON THE DOWNWARD TREND 
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE CIRCULATION 
CENTER. MORNING ASCAT AND WINDSAT PASSES MISSED THE REMNANTS 
ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO BE OCCURRING WITHIN 
240 NM N AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF THE REMNANT LOW. WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. 
THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
DEGENERATING INTO A TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES 137W AROUND 48 HOURS.

1035 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
39N149W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH INTO THE AREA 
TERMINATING NEAR 26N120W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS 
HIGH AND THE REMNANT LOW OF EUGENE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A 
BELT OF 20-25 KT NE WINDS FROM 20N TO 28N W OF 130W DURING THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS GRADUALLY SHIFTING WESTWARD WITH THE LOW.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS 
THE REGIONAL WATERS MAINLY S OF 10N AND W OF 100W BUILDING SEAS 
TO 9 FT. AN EARLIER WINDSAT PASS CAPTURED 20 KT SE WINDS FROM 
03N TO 08N W OF 135W EMBEDDED IN THIS SAME AREA. THIS SWELL WILL 
BECOME CONFINED TO W OF 105W IN 24 HOURS...THEN TO W OF 110W IN 
48 HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY