000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040320 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU AUG 04 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE EUGENE WAS CENTERED NEAR 16.1N 115.8W AT 04/0300 UTC MOVING WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT WITH CENTRAL PRES 962 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. EUGENE HAS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A VERY SYMMETRICAL OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN WITH PRETTY MUCH A WELL DEFINED EYE...ALTHOUGH NOT TOTALLY CLEAR. MESO-VORTICES ARE SEEN ROTATING CYCLONICALLY WITHIN THE EYE. LATEST IT IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE AND S QUADRANTS AND 75 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE S SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE N SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 114W-118W. EUGENE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE BEGINNING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND INTO THU MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND FULL FORECAST /ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCMEP5/WTPZ25 FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1006 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM SW OF THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC NEAR 15N99W REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF VERY HIGH MOISTURE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BETWEEN 96W AND 107W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 16N99W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK IN A GENERAL NW DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND SOME OF THE RESULTANT CONVECTION EXPECTED TO AFFECT COASTAL MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AND POSSIBLY NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS TO NEAR 16N105W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N879W TO 10N90W TO A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 15N99W. IT RESUMES AT 13N119W TO 9N130W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS THEN IDENTIFY IT AS THE ITCZ AXIS TO 8N135W TO 7N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... THE EPAC SUBTROPICAL HIGH CONTINUES TO BE WEAKENED AND DISPLACED WESTWARD BY MEAN DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING JUST OFF THE W COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT...TYPICAL FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE LIMITED TO THE TROPICAL WATERS W OF 130W. THE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT SLIGHTLY JUST N OF THE AREA OFF CALIFORNIA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS JUST NE OF THE AREA MOVING TOWARDS THE U.S. W COAST. E OF THIS TROUGH...A MEAN UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL U.S. AND THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...EXTENDING SW TO AN ANTICYCLONE SW OF CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 25N117W...WITH RIDGING CONTINUING TO SW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 17N140W. A WEAK AND SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE MOVING NW IS NEAR 21N126W. THE LARGE RIDGE AXIS PENETRATES DOWNWARD INTO THE MID LEVELS AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. IT WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL W TO W-NW STEERING FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL EPAC E OF 120W...AND STEER BOTH HURRICANE EUGENE...AND THE LOW PRES SYSTEM TO ITS E...TOWARD THE W-NW. ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 5N WILL MOST LIKELY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OR THROUGHOUT THU MORNING. NE-E WINDS ALOFT OVER THIS AREA WILL ADVECT THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM E PORTIONS OF COLOMBIA AND THE ADJACENT CARIBBEAN...AND CONVERGES S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO FEED INTO EUGENE FROM NEAR THE EQUATOR NORTHWEST BETWEEN 108W AND 125W...WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE SE TO S FLOW IS OCCURRING S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF ABOUT 100W. SWELL GENERATED FROM EUGENE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHWARD THROUGH FRI...BOTH INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL HAS BROUGHT SEAS ABOVE 8 FT TO S CENTRAL WATERS S OF 05N AND W OF 96W. A NEW PULSE OF 16-18 SECOND PERIOD SW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING...AND KEEP COMBINED SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE THERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. $$ AGUIRRE