000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030910 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED AUG 03 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE EUGENE AT 15.2N 113.0W AT 03/0900 UTC MOVING W-NW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT WITH CENTRAL PRES 961 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF EUGENE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM. EUGENE IS UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT CIRRUS OUTFLOW NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. EUGENE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRI MORNING. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCMEP5/WTPZ25 FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1006 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM SW OF THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC NEAR 14N98W HAS SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM NE QUADRANT OF LOW NEAR 14N98W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 75 NM NW QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS W-NW. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 1006 MB LOW PRES NEAR 14N98W THEN CONTINUES FROM 12N117W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N120W TO 10N129W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N129W TO 07N140W. THE ONLY NOTABLE CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES SYSTEM AT 14N98W MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. ...DISCUSSION... THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CONTINUES TO BE WEAKENED AND DISPLACED WESTWARD BY MEAN TROUGHING JUST OFF THE W COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT...THE FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE LIMITED TO WATERS W OF 130W. THE 0630 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS TO 20 KT FROM 10N TO 22N WITH THE 0530 UTC JASON 1 PASS SHOWING SEAS AS HIGH AS 9 FT IN SW SWELL IN THE S PORTION OF THAT AREA NEAR THE ITCZ. A MEAN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 13N140W THROUGH AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 20N130W TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 26N111W. THIS RIDGE AXIS PENETRATES INTO THE MID LEVELS AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT WILL HELP STEER BOTH HURRICANE EUGENE AND THE LOW PRES SYSTEM MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION W-NW. ANOTHER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE ANTICYCLONE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND PARALLELS THE COAST OF MEXICO TO 13N105W. THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS IS ENHANCING THE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FOUND WITHIN 180 NM OF MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 99W AND 102W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF MEXICAN COAST FROM 20N TO 23N. THE 0446 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED THE FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS FEEDING INTO EUGENE FROM N OF 05N BETWEEN 106W AND 120W. EUGENE MANAGED TO SLIP BETWEEN THE JASON 1 PASS FROM 0340 UTC AND THE JASON 2 PASS FROM 0430 UTC...WITH 10 FT SEAS REPORTED WITHIN 570 NM SE QUADRANT OF EUGENE. THE 12 FT SEA RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE E SEMICIRLCE BASED ON THIS PASS AND THE WAVE FORECAST GUIDANCE. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL HAS BROUGHT SEAS ABOVE 8 FT TO S CENTRAL WATERS. THE AFOREMENTIONED JASON1 PASS SHOWED 8 FT SEAS EXTENDING AS FAR AS 05N. A NEW BATCH OF 16-18 SECOND PERIOD SW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND KEEP THE WAVES IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE HERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES N OF 06N E OF 82W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AND OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA AS WELL AS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST FROM 02N TO 06N. THIS CONVECTION LIES IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIR JUST S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND UNDER A REGION OF WEAK BUT DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL WINDS. $$ SCHAUER