000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030313
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED AUG 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE EUGENE IS CENTERED NEAR 14.7N 118.8W AT 03/0300 UTC
MOVING  WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT...WITH CENTRAL PRES 960 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
120 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EARLY 
EVENING SHOWED A CYCLONE THAT IS INTENSIFYING AS IT INDICATED
BY THE NOW NOTICEABLE EYE FEATURE AND TIGHTLY COILED BANDING
FEATURES CONSISTING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NE AND E QUADRANTS. THIS CONVECTION IS DEPICTED AS THE
NUMEROUS STRONG TYPE WITHIN 120 NM TO THE NE AND E OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY HAS EUGENE INTENSIFYING TO 110 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT BY WED MORNING AS IT MOVES TO THE SW OF
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WHILE CONTINUING TO TRACK WNW...THEN BEGIN TO 
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATER BEGINNING LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THU. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
TCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS TCMEP5/WTPZ25 FOR MORE DETAILS.

A LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 14N97W HAS A PRES OF 1007 MB. THIS LOW
IS FORECAST TO TRACK WSW THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN MORE
TO THE WNW INTO 48 HOURS WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF IT BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NW 
QUADRANT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N79W TO OVER COSTA RICA TO 
12N90W TO A 1007 MB LOW AT 14N97W AND TO 16N101W. IT THEN 
RESUMES AT 12N115W TO A 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N119W TO 10N130W 
TO 7N137W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS THEN DEPICT IT AS THE ITCZ AXIS 
TO BEYOND THE AREA AT 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 115W-120W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OFF THE NW PACIFIC
COAST SW TO THE FAR NW PORTION OF E DISCUSSION AREA. TO ITS S
...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 21N130W WITH A 
RIDGE SW TO W OF THE AREA AT 17N140W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MODERATE SUBSIDENCE NW OF A LINE FROM 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SW TO 16N130W. TO THE E OF THIS LINE BROAD 
SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EVIDENT WITH AN ANTICYLONE OVER 
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. EUGENE IS LOCATED TO THE S OF THIS 
ANTICYCLONE.
NE TO ELY WINDS ALOFT WERE IMPINGING ON THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION
OF EUGENE.

AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH HAS BUILT ENOUGH RIDGING 
OVER WESTERN WATERS TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND 
THE ITCZ...ALLOWING FOR FRESH NE TRADE WINDS TO EXIST FROM 10N TO
24N W OF 130W. THIS AREA OF WINDS IS FORECAST TO EXPAND SOME 
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS WERE FEEDING INTO EUGENE FROM 5N TO 11N
BETWEEN 100W AND 118W WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT.
AS EUGENE MOVES OFF THE WNW...THIS AREA OF WINDS WILL SHIFT
SOME WESTWARD AS WELL.

A NEW PULSE OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS CROSSING THE EQUATOR...AND
IS REACHING THE WAVE FIELD OF EUGENE.

$$
AGUIRRE