000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022153 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE AUG 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE EUGENE LOCATED AT 14.2N 110.6W AT 02/2100Z MOVING W-NW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT...WITH CENTRAL PRES 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED THE EMERGENCE OF A RAGGED EYE. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE CENTER WHILE NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE CENTER OF EUGENE. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR EUGENE TO GENERALLY MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT MOTION AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATER AND BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCMEP5/WTPZ25 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 07N83W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 14N95W THEN CONTINUES FROM 12N114W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N119W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N131W TO 08N136W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N136W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH FROM 84W TO 87W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 114W AND 117W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAKENING DEEP LAYERED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM NEAR 30N128W TO VERY WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 22N141W. AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH HAS BUILT ENOUGH RIDGING OVER WESTERN WATERS TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE ITCZ...ALLOWING FOR FRESH NE TRADE WINDS TO RETURN W OF 130W. AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED NE WINDS NEAR 20 KT WINDS FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 132W. THESE TRADES WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY FARTHER NE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A QUICKLY WEAKENING ANTICYCLONE ALOFT LIES NEAR 21N128W AND EXTENDS A WEAKENING AND NARROW RIDGE NE THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO. JUST TO THE SE OF THIS RIDGE LIES A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 29N117W WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR THE ITCZ ALONG 13N127W. A SECOND BROADER RIDGE AXIS ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND S CENTRAL U.S. AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS MOST OF THE N HALF OF MEXICO. HURRICANE EUGENE IS S OF THIS SECOND RIDGE AND LIES ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF WEAKENING NELY WIND SHEAR. THE NARROW WESTERN MOST RIDGE OF FORECAST TO COLLAPSE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE UPPER CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SHIFT NW. THE BROADER EASTERNMOST RIDGE WILL THEN BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE BY WED...WITH A NEW ANTICYLONE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NW MEXICO TONIGHT. E OF 100W...NE TO ELY WINDS ALOFT WERE PRODUCING VERY LIGHT WIND SHEAR ALOFT...AND HELPING TO MAINTAIN ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION OFF THE MEXICAN COAST N OF 20N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHRINKING AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS FEEDING INTO EUGENE FROM N OF 05N...AND HELP TO VERIFY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD 105 NM E OF EUGENE AND UP TO 150 NM NW. A NEW PULSE OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS CROSSING THE EQUATOR...AND REACHING THE WAVE FILED OF EUGENE. THE AREA OF SW WINDS AND INCREASED SEAS S OF EUGENE WILL LIFT NW IN TANDEM WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED JUST SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 14N95W...IN THE REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION NOTED ABOVE BETWEEN 93W AND 100W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS AIDING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE REGION...WHILE SPEED DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS ENHANCING AND SUSTAINING THE DEEP CONVECTION THERE. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY W OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND REMAIN A FOCUS FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION...BEFORE REACHING 100W AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING THU. $$ STRIPLING