000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012204 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON AUG 01 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE EUGENE WAS CENTERED AT 12.9N 105.2W AT 01/2100Z MOVING W-NW OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT...WITH CENTRAL PRES 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 GUSTS TO 80 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM W SEMICIRCLE. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE CIRCULATION OF EUGENE WARMING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A LATE MORNING MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED A DEVELOPING EYEWALL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION...INDICATING IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE FORCE. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS EUGENE CONTINUES MOVING TOWARDS THE W-NW. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCMEP5/WTPZ25 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDS S-SE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EPAC WATER N OF 10N. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO SERN MEXICO AND THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SLOWLY W AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS THE EPAC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 13N96W TO 13N98W THEN CONTINUES FROM 11N105W 12N116W TO 08N123W TO 11N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS FROM 94W TO 97W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 120W TO 123W. ...DISCUSSION... THE DEEP LAYERED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALONG 130W THAT HAS WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN...WITH PORTIONS N OF 25N BEGINNING TO SHIFT N. AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION AND FRESHENING NE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO WESTERN PORTIONS BETWEEN 13N AND 28N LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND FRESHEN BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 20N W OF 130W TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LIES NEAR 23N125W AND EXTENDS A NARROW RIDGE NE THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE OVER NEW MEXICO. SE OF THIS RIDGE...AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NEAR THE ITCZ ALONG 12N120W TO W CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 27N114W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS MUCH OF MEXICO WAS AIDING IN FORCING THIS INVERTED TROUGH WWD...AS WELL AS IN STEERING EUGENE TOWARDS THE W-NW. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SHIFT MORE NW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHIFTS WEST AND CONTINUES TO GUIDE EUGENE W-NW. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...THE SURFACE HIGH NEAR 36N141W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO JUST OFFSHORE OF THE N HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... YIELDING NLY WINDS AROUND 15 KT PER LATE MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASSES. 20 KT S TO SW MONSOON FLOW IS FOUND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND 120W...WHICH INCLUDES A BROAD ZONE S OF EUGENE. GAP WINDS...MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND BETWEEN THE HIGHER PRES OVER THE FAR NW GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH EUGENE. ONCE THE TROPICAL WAVE MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND TURN MORE NE TO E AND DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY TUE. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO TUE. $$ STRIPLING