000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010859 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON AUG 01 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM EUGENE CENTERED AT 11.6N 103.2 AT 01/0900 UTC MOVING W-NW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT WITH CENTRAL PRES 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 GUSTS TO 60 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM W SEMICIRCLE. THE CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH EUGENE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT CONTINUES W-NW. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCMEP5/WTPZ25 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 14N95W THEN CONTINUES FROM 12N108W TO 12N116W TO 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N120W TO 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N132W TO 10N133W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N133W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 180 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 114W AND 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S AND 150 NM W QUADRANTS OF LOW PRES NEAR 10N132W. ...DISCUSSION... THE DEEP LAYERED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING ALONG 130W THAT HAS WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THE LAST FEW DAYS IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT N. AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION AND FRESH NE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO WESTERN WATERS BETWEEN 10N AND 20N LATER TODAY. AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT LIES NEAR 22N122W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. A SECOND RIDGE AXIS PARALLELS THIS ONE TO ITS SE. IT LIES FROM 14N110W THROUGH CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO INTO NE TEXAS. TROPICAL STORM EUGENE IS APPROACHING THIS RIDGE AXIS. ITS CONVECTION HAS BECOME STRONGER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY WEAK AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALSO LIES NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 102W AND 105W. THESE RIDGE AXES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THEY SHIFT W. THE 0346 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED THE BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS FEEDING INTO EUGENE FROM N OF 05N. THE JASON2 PASS FROM 0350 UTC SHOWS SEAS ABOVE 8 FT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM EXTEND FROM 05N TO 14N. SHIP DQXQ REPORTED 13 FT SEAS AT 0600 UTC NEAR 11N96.5W. 12 FT SEA RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON THIS SHIP AND FORECAST GUIDANCE. GAP WINDS...THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS MISSED THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT. STRONG NE WINDS ARE STILL FUNNELING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W AND BETWEEN THE HIGHER PRES OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH EUGENE. ONCE THE TROPICAL WAVE MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND BE BELOW 20 KT BY LATE TUE MORNING. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TODAY. $$ SCHAUER