000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310923 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN JUL 31 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS CENTERED NEAR 10.7N 100.2W AT 31/0900 MOVING W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE NEAR THIS AREA OF LOW PRES WHICH LIES UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN E-NE WINDS OVER AND N OF THE SYSTEM ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND MORE NORTHERLY WINDS JUST TO ITS S. THE RIDGE TO ITS N WILL STEER THE SYSTEM W-NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR FIVE-E TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCMEP5/WTPZ25 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N87W TO 11N97W THEN CONTINUES FROM 10N103W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N117W TO 11N121W TO 12N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 92W AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 131W. ...DISCUSSION... PERSISTENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING ALOFT ALONG 130W HAS WEAKENED THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. THE SUBTROPICAL SURFACE HIGH IS DISPLACED NW OF ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION TO NEAR 37N151W AND THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH LIES FROM 32N126W TO 26N130W. THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH OVER NW WATERS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE TROUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH NE WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS WEAKENED BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WELL N OF THE AREA. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL MIGRATE SE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO FAR W WATERS OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT. TO THE N OF THIS AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM PATTERN LIES A STRING OF ANTICYCLONES NEAR 14N142W...20N120W...AND NE OF THE AREA OVER THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIDGING BETWEEN THE EASTERN TWO ANTICYCLONE IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW THAT IS ENHANCING THE SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 19N TO 22N AND SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 23N TO 27N. THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 20N120W WILL BECOME ENGULFED IN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER HIGH LATER TODAY AND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT N THROUGH WESTERN MEXICO. THE 0406 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF SW MONSOON FLOW FEEDING INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E. JASON1 AND JASON2 PASSES FROM 0424 UTC AND 0324 UTC RESPECTIVELY SHOW SEAS AT OR ABOVE 8 FT CONFINED FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 92W AND 110W. LOOK FOR THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG MONSOON FLOW TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE SHIFTS W-NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE AREA OF SEAS ABOVE ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHIFTING N AS WELL. GAP WINDS...WINDS ARE BEING ENHANCED THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THE INCREASING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E AND HIGHER PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 0408 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS STRONG N TO NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN APPROACHING ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W WILL ALSO HELP FUNNEL NE WINDS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AS IT APPROACHES LATER TODAY. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CAUGHT IN THE MONSOON FLOW MON AND DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO FRESH OVER TEHUANTEPEC BY TUE MORNING AS FIVE-E MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. $$ SCHAUER