000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300326
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUL 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N86W TO 09N98W TO 12N116W TO 11N121W 
TO 12N128W TO 10N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM N AND 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 95W TO 101W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 118W TO 
122W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND FROM 32N1129W TO WELL DEFINED 
CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 26N131W.  SECOND TROUGH EXTEND SE TO SECOND 
SMALLER VORTEX AT 22N112W.  TROUGHS SQUEEZE ANTICYCLONE TO 
17N119W CLOSER TO WEAK SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER PRESENTLY AT 
12N117W BRINGING MODERATE NE WIND SHEAR OVER ANY DEVELOPING 
CONVECTION AS FEATURES ALOFT MAINTAIN DRY AIR MASS OVER MOST OF 
E PAC REGION N OF MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 108W.  

NE SWELLS FROM GALE FORCE WINDS WELL N OF E PAC AFFECTING BASIN  
N OF 27N W OF 127W.  WINDS DIMINISH BY SUN BUT LINGERING 8-9 FT 
NE SWELL REMAIN THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. 

FRESH MONSOON SW FLOW FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 80W-120W WITH SEAS TO 
9 FT REMAIN IN SE PORTION OF BASIN THROUGH PERIOD.  GLOBAL 
MODELS DIFFER IN SOLUTIONS REGARDING LOW PRES 1010 MB AT 10N93W 
BUT STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN 
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH NOT FOR LONG.  WHICH 
INDICATE THAT ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. 
  
$$
WALLY BARNES