000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270949 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED JUL 27 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WNW FROM COSTA RICA AT 10N85W TO 12N120W TO 06N113W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 08N140W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED FROM 10N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 78W AND 100W. LOCALLY BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED FROM 02N 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 135W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N82W TO 12N103W AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N111W TO 14N126W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS FLARING WITHIN THE CLOUDINESS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 117W AND 133W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 81W TO 89W AND FROM 93W TO 102W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM OKLAHOMA TO A CREST AT 29N123W AND IS SOMEWHAT RETARDING THE SOUTHERN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 30N124W TO 25N130W. A SECONDARY REINFORCING UPPER TROUGH IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING ALONG 35N126W TO 33N133W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS AT 24N137W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 20N144W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS AT 27N122W WITH A TROUGH SW TO 20N129W AND ACCOMPANIED BY THIN UPPER MOISTURE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FEATURES. DEBRIS MOISTURE... ORIGINATING FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT FLARED ALONG THE MEXICAN SIERRA MADRE RIDGE...IS ADVECTED W OVER THE PACIFIC TO THE N OF 21N E OF 116W. THE SW CONUS RIDGE WILL BUILD A LITTLE FURTHER W AND FURTHER PREVENT THE SE ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGHS RESULTING IN A CUT OFF CYCLONE TO FORM NEAR 26N130W LATE TONIGHT AND MEANDER THROUGH FRI. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 03S95W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W ALONG THE EQUATOR TO A SHARP CREST AT 00N126W. THIS SETS UP A LARGE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ WITH CONVECTION SLIGHTLY ENHANCED AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS FANNING OUT FROM 02N TO 17N BETWEEN 98W AND 120W...AND FROM 06N TO 15N BETWEEN 120W AND 137W. A SMALL BAND OF THE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED N ALONG 124W BUT EVAPORATES BEFORE REACHING 21N. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS MEXICO ALONG 21N INTO ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE PACIFIC AT 19N108W. ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 07N92W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS SW ACROSS GUATEMALA TO NEAR 12N100W. CONVECTION IS SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE E OF 100W...WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE COVERING THE AREA E OF 93W. CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS...RESULTING IN SEAS TO 10 FT...ARE PROPAGATING N ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE S OF 11N BETWEEN 90W AND 125W AND ALSO THE WATERS S OF 05N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W...WITH THE SW SWELL TRAIN INTERRUPTED BY THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THE SW MONSOON FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY 04N-08N BETWEEN 95W-95W LATE TONIGHT...AND SHIFT E TO THE AREA BOUNDED BY 04N-08N BETWEEN 80W AND 90W THU NIGHT... WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL SURROUNDING THE ENTIRE AREA TO THE S OF 09N E OF 115W. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIP INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS FRI ALONG 31N128W TO 25N130W. THE TROUGH WILL BE PRECEDED THU NIGHT BY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT OVER THE AREA N OF 28N W OF 125W. $$ NELSON