000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261511
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUL 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 09N96W TO 14N116W TO 
09N134W...THEN AS ITCZ AXIS TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 10N E OF 85W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 93W AND 103W.

...DISCUSSION...
STATIONARY 1031 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 43N148W EXTENDS A WEAK RIDGE 
SE TO AROUND 22N120W. THERMAL TROUGH IN MOJAVE DESERT SUPPORTING 
25-30 KT NNW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WHICH IS
PRODUCING 7-8 FT SWELL SPREADING ACROSS 30N BOUNDARY BETWEEN 
118W AND 125W. WEAK TO MODERATE NE TRADES ARE FOUND OVER LARGE 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 13N W OF 120W. WEAK S TO SW 
FLOW S OF 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W IS CREATING A POORLY 
DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH IN CENTRAL PORTION. STRONGER 10-15 KT S-SW
WINDS IS FOUND E OF 110W WHICH SUPPORTS A BETTER DEFINED MONSOON 
TROUGH S OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCS 
INDICATED FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 96W AND 107W.

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE BEING FOCUSED S OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA E OF 85W 
AND FURTHER W FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 125W.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL S SWELLS WITH SEAS TO 10 FT...ARE PROPAGATING N 
ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 08N W OF 95W. THE SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE 
EXPECTED TO SPREAD FURTHER N TO 10-15N E OF 105W OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS AS SW MONSOONAL FLOW INCREASES TO 20 KT OVER THE 
WATERS S OF 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 95W.
 
$$
MUNDELL