000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260957
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUL 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N85W TO 09N98W...IS DISTORTED FROM 
98W TO 105W RESUMING AT 14N105W TO 11N110W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS 
INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING 
OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO THE N OF 02N E OF 80W...ALONG THE 
COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A LINE FROM 08N96W TO 12N122W TO 06N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG ALSO NOTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPC WITHIN 15 
NM OF A LINE FROM 16N94W TO 14N97W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM N TEXAS TO A CREST AT 31N121W AND 
IS RETARDING THE SOUTHERN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING 
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 34N130W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS AT 
24N132W WITH A RIDGE SW TO BEYOND 17N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONE IS AT 21N122W WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING N TO 
29N120W. THE CYCLONE IS ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER MOISTURE WITHIN 150 
NM OF CENTER. DEBRIS MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTION THAT 
FLARED ALONG THE MEXICAN SIERRA MADRE RIDGE...IS ADVECTED W OVER 
THE PACIFIC TO THE N OF 20N E OF 115W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 02S110W SETTING UP 
AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ 
WITH CONVECTION SLIGHTLY ENHANCED. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS 
MOISTURE IS FANNING OUT FROM 03N TO 14N BETWEEN 105W AND 135W.

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND 
ACROSS MEXICO INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 17N106W. AN UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDS W ALONG 11N TO THE E OF 103W. CONVECTION IS SLIGHTLY 
ENHANCED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE E OF 103W WITH THE 
DEBRIS MOISTURE COVERING THE AREA FROM 05 TO 11N ALSO TO THE E 
OF 103W.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS...RESULTING IN SEAS TO 10 FT...ARE 
PROPAGATING N ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 08N TO THE W OF 95W. THE 
SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FURTHER N TO ALONG 15N 
TO THE E OF 110W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SW 
MONSOONAL FLOW INCREASES TO 20 KT OVER THE WATERS S OF 08N 
BETWEEN 80W AND 95W.
 
$$
NELSON