000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250314
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N79W TO 07N90W TO 09N103W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N103W TO 
10N114W THEN RESUMES FROM 08N118W TO 09N130W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120-150 NM S 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90-120 NM S OF THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 110W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NW OF THE AREA FROM 35N140W 
DIPPING S TO JUST E OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII NEAR 16N152W. 
THIS TROUGH IS BEING BLOCKED BY AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE 
POSITIONED OVER 23N127W MOVING W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM SW ARIZONA ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO 
THE ANTICYCLONE CONTINUING SW TO A COL NEAR 09N140W. AN INVERTED 
UPPER TROUGH HOVERS OVER THE REMNANTS OF DORA FROM 29N117W TO 
12N119W.  

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC NEAR 
04N115W WITH UPPER TROUGHING FROM 04N94W THROUGH THE CYCLONE TO 
04N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DOMINATES FAR SE MEXICO AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AN ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ENHANCING 
CONVECTION S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

AT THE SURFACE...POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW DORA WAS NEAR 
24.3N114.5W AT 25/0000 UTC WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND 
SEAS OF 8-12 FT WITHIN 90 NM IN THE N SEMICIRCLE AND SE QUADRANT 
AND 60 NM SW QUADRANT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO 
SHOW A DECLINE IN ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD 
TOPS AROUND -45C IN JUST A FEW SMALL AREAS. DORA WILL CONTINUE 
TO THE NW AROUND 5-10 KT REACHING TO NEAR 26N116W IN 24 HOURS 
WHILE WEAKENING TO 20 KT AND THEN DISSIPATING BY 36 HOURS.

A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N140W TO 20N120W. WEAK TRADE WINDS 
OF 10-15 KT WERE NOTED BY EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASSES ON THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ. A WEAK TROUGH 
IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ REACHING FROM 14N115W TO 07N117W. 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120-180 NM W 
OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS ALONG WITH E-SE 20 KT WINDS CAPTURED 
BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS S OF 05N W OF 133W ARE RESULTING IN 9 FT 
SEAS. THE SE SWELL SURROUNDS THIS AREA SW OF A LINE FROM 06N140W 
TO 00N120W. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 
HOURS AS A NEW SET OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL MOVES NORTHWARD 
TO S OF 04N BETWEEN 100W AND 130W. THE SW SWELL BECOMES DOMINANT 
BY 48 HOURS WHILE REACHING TO S OF 10N BETWEEN 91W AND 116W... 
AND ALSO SPREADING E TO THE AREA S OF 03N BETWEEN 90W AND 88W 
WHILE BUILDING TO UP TO 10 FT.

GAP WINDS...OBSERVATIONS AND IXTEPEC IN THE STATE OF OAXACA 
MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
35 KT. EXPECT SOME OF THESE WINDS TO BE TRANSLATING INTO THE 
WATERS OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITH THE WINDS GRADUALLY 
SUBSIDING THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. ONE MORE SURGE OF 20 
KT NE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVERNIGHT 
TONIGHT DIMINISHING BY LATE MON MORNING.

$$
LEWITSKY