000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242130 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN JUL 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... DORA IS NOW A POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW NEAR 23.9N 114.5W AT 24/2100 UTC MOVING NW OR 325 DEG AT 07 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. A NOAA AIRCRAFT INVESTING DORA ON A RESEARCH MISSION DETERMINED THAT DORA HAS WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 25 KT AT THE SURFACE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LIMITED REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. THUS DORA IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED TO BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH DORA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N82W TO 07N87W TO 08N94W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N94W TO 09N98W TO 09N114W THEN RESUMES FROM 08N116W TO 09N131W THEN RESUMES FROM 09N136W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 81W AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90-150 NM OF A LINE FROM 10N105W TO 07N114W. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NW OF THE AREA FROM 35N140W DIPPING S TO JUST E OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII NEAR 17N150W. THIS TROUGH IS BEING BLOCKED BY AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED OVER 23N125W DRIFTING W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM SW ARIZONA ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO THE ANTICYCLONE...CONTINUING SW TO A COL NEAR 09N139W. AN INVERTED TROUGH HOVERS OVER DORA FROM 28N116W TO 13N118W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC NEAR 04N126W WITH UPPER TROUGHING FROM 03N90W THROUGH THE CYCLONE TO 05N140W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION N OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE DOMINATES FAR SE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AN ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ENHANCING CONVECTION S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N140W TO 20N120W. WEAK TRADE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE NOTED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ. A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. THE EASTERN TROUGH IS FROM 08N TO 12N ALONG 116W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH. THE WESTERN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N130W TO 08N135W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120-150 NM W OF THE TROUGH. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS ALONG WITH E-SE 20 KT WINDS CAPTURED BY A RECENT WINDSAT PASS S OF 03N BETWEEN 130W AND 133W ARE RESULTING IN 9 FT SEAS. THE SE SWELL SURROUNDS THIS AREA SW OF A LINE FROM 06N140W TO 00N120W. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A NEW SET OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL MOVES NORTHWARD TO S OF 05N BETWEEN 105W AND 130W. THE SW SWELL BECOMES DOMINANT BY 48 HOURS WHILE REACHING TO S OF 07N BETWEEN 92W AND 120W WHILE BUILDING TO UP TO 10 FT. GAP WINDS...EXPERIMENTAL 25 KM ASCAT HI-RES COASTAL WINDS CAPTURED 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 1544 UTC. MODEL GUIDANCE CARRIES 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THE SAME ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20 KT NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH MON...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. $$ LEWITSKY