000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222129 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI JUL 22 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE DORA CENTERED NEAR 19.8N 109.9W AT 22/2100 UTC MOVING NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DORA IS CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM INTO MUCH COOLER WATERS. WITH SOME NELY SHEAR AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS EXPECTED...A CONTINUED WEAKENING OF DORA IS FORECAST. DORA SHOULD WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY SAT. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY DORA WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH 09N85W TO 08N92W THEN ITCZ TO 08N102W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 13N112W TO 11N125W TO 08N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE N OF 05N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR 09N92W. ...DISCUSSION... PRES GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK OVER NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W...WITH NE TRADE WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS GENERALLY 6-7 FT IN MIXED N AND SE SWELL. FURTHER SOUTH...THE ITCZ HAS RE-ESTABLISHED ITSELF W OF AROUND 110W AS LARGE SCALE MONSOON FLOW WEAKENS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE WEAK VORTICES ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS NEAR 11N119W...12N124W... 13N128W AND 11N140W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS REGION THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND NONE OF THE WEAK VORTICES ALONG THE ITCZ ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO DISTINCT AREAS OF LOW PRES. SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH EXISTS E OF 92W ALONG 07-08N. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS SPOTTY E OF 100W. DEEP LAYER E WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO CENTRAL AMERICA. A WEAK TO MODERATE PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT WILL PULSE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH WINDS REACHING 20 KT IN THE EARLY MORNING...AND FADING BY LATE AFTERNOON. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NW ACROSS THE EQUATOR AFFECTING MAINLY THE SW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SWELLS ARE MIXING WITH NE TRADE SWELL ALONG 10N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. SOUTHERLY SWELL PREVAILS OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF 125W. N TO NW SWELL WILL REACH N WATERS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS RAISING SEAS TO 8-9 FT N OF 25N E OF 125W. THESE SWELLS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NWLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...AND WILL MIX WITH SE SWELL GENERATED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE DORA. $$ GR