000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202138
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUL 20 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE DORA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.5N 104.2W AT 2100 UTC OR 
ABOUT 220 MI SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MOVING WNW AT 14 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. DORA IS IN AN 
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND IS EXPECTED TO 
INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT DAY AS IT MOVES WNW. THE HURRICANE IS 
BECOMING QUITE LARGE IN SIZE WITH 12 FT WAVE HEIGHTS EXTENDING 
AS FAR AS 240 NM FROM THE CENTER.  SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
A DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH IS FROM 08N77W TO 04N87W TO 
06N97W AND RESUMES NEAR 14N108W TO 04N140W. THE ITCZ IS W OF 
140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 
135W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 43N149W IS
INDUCING ONLY A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS W AND NW 
PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...YIELDING WEAK NE TRADE WINDS 
KT N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 115W EXCEPT FOR A NARROW ZONE OF 
20 KT NE WINDS W OF 127W NEAR 10N. A GRADUALLY DISSIPATING 1011 
MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N116W WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WNW 
AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY THU WITH SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 20 
KT EXPECTED.

OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE MONSOON TROUGH E AND SE OF 
DORA WILL REMAIN WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT. DEEP LAYER E WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO CENTRAL AMERICA THE NEXT FEW DAYS... 
BRINGING ABOUT A MORE TYPICAL MID-SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN...AND A 
RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL-NOCTURNAL CYCLES. A WEAK PAPAGAYO 
GAP WIND EVENT WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH 
PULSING WINDS REACHING 15-20 KT IN THE EARLY MORNING...AND 
FADING BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE PULSING...WEAK NATURE OF THIS 
EVENT...THESE PAPAGAYO WINDS ARE NOT INCLUDED INTO THE HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST.

SHORTER PERIOD N TO NW SWELL WILL REACH 30N LATE FRI WITH 8 TO 
10 FT SEAS...PRODUCED BY STRONG NWLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

$$
MUNDELL/LANDSEA