000 AXPZ20 KNHC 201600 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED JUL 20 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE DORA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.9N 103.0W 981 MB AT 1500 UTC OR ABOUT 220 MI SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MOVING WNW AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. DORA IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DURING DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WNW. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N80W TO 10N90W RESUMES NEAR 15N110W TO 08N140W. ITCZ W OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 134W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 43N150W INDUCING ONLY A MODEST PRES GRADIENT ACROSS W AND NW PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...YIELDING MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS KT N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 120W EXCEPT FOR A NARROW ZONE OF 20 KT NE WINDS W OF 127W. A GRADUALLY DISSIPATING 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N115W WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WNW AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY THU WITH SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT EXPECTED. THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BROKEN DOWN S OF THIS WEAKENING LOW AND HAS REALIGNED ITSELF FARTHER S ALONG 14N. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE MONSOON TROUGH E AND SE OF DORA WILL REMAIN WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT. DEEP LAYER E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO CENTRAL AMERICA THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRINGING ABOUT A MORE TYPICAL MID-SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN...AND A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL-NOCTURNAL CYCLES. A WEAK PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH PULSING WINDS REACHING 15-20 KT IN THE EARLY MORNING...AND FADING BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHORTER PERIOD N TO NW SWELL WILL REACH 30N LATE FRI WITH 8 TO 10 FT SEAS...PRODUCED BY STRONG NWLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. $$ MUNDELL 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 201600 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED JUL 20 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE DORA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.9N 103.0W 981 MB AT 1500 UTC OR ABOUT 220 MI SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MOVING WNW AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. DORA IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DURING DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WNW. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N80W TO 10N90W RESUMES NEAR 15N110W TO 08N140W. ITCZ W OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 134W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 43N150W INDUCING ONLY A MODEST PRES GRADIENT ACROSS W AND NW PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...YIELDING MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS KT N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 120W EXCEPT FOR A NARROW ZONE OF 20 KT NE WINDS W OF 127W. A GRADUALLY DISSIPATING 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N115W WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WNW AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY THU WITH SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT EXPECTED. THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BROKEN DOWN S OF THIS WEAKENING LOW AND HAS REALIGNED ITSELF FARTHER S ALONG 14N. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE MONSOON TROUGH E AND SE OF DORA WILL REMAIN WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT. DEEP LAYER E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO CENTRAL AMERICA THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRINGING ABOUT A MORE TYPICAL MID-SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN...AND A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL-NOCTURNAL CYCLES. A WEAK PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH PULSING WINDS REACHING 15-20 KT IN THE EARLY MORNING...AND FADING BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHORTER PERIOD N TO NW SWELL WILL REACH 30N LATE FRI WITH 8 TO 10 FT SEAS...PRODUCED BY STRONG NWLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. $$ MUNDELL