000 AXPZ20 KNHC 201002 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED JUL 20 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE DORA WAS CENTERED NEAR 14.1N 101.6W 985 MB AT 0900 UTC OR ABOUT 225 MI SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING WNW AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. DORA IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DURING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WNW. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N80W TO 12N89W...THEN RESUMES NEAR 14N111W TO 07N140W. ITCZ W OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 126W AND 137W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1038 MB HIGH REMAINS CENTER WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 43N150W AND INDUCING ONLY A MODEST PRES GRADIENT ACROSS W AND NW PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS WAS YIELDING MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS KT N OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH W OF 120W EXCEPT FOR A NARROW ZONE OF 20 KT NE WINDS JUST N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 127W. A GRADUALLY DISSIPATING 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 20.5N114W WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY THURSDAY WITH NO SURFACE WINDS OF EVEN 20 KT EXPECTED. THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BROKEN DOWN S OF THIS WEAKENING LOW AND HAS REALIGNED ITSELF FARTHER S ALONG 14N AT 111W. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE MONSOON TROUGH E AND SE OF DORA WILL REMAIN WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT. DEEP LAYER E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO CENTRAL AMERICA THE NEXT FEW DAYS... BRINGING ABOUT A MORE TYPICAL MID-SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN...AND A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL-NOCTURNAL CYCLES. A WEAK PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT WILL COMMENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH PULSING WINDS REACHING 20 KT IN THE EARLY MORNING AND FADING BY LATE AFTERNOON. LONG PERIOD S SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN TODAY WITH SUBSIDING LONG PERIOD SWELLS. BY LATE FRIDAY...SHORTER PERIOD N TO NW SWELL WILL BE ENTERING OUR NORTHERN BOUNDARY AND 8 TO 10 FT SEAS...PRODUCED BY STRONG NWLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS AREA OF SEAS WILL LIKELY BE ADDED TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST. $$ STRIPLING 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 201002 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED JUL 20 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE DORA WAS CENTERED NEAR 14.1N 101.6W 985 MB AT 0900 UTC OR ABOUT 225 MI SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING WNW AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. DORA IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DURING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WNW. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N80W TO 12N89W...THEN RESUMES NEAR 14N111W TO 07N140W. ITCZ W OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 126W AND 137W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1038 MB HIGH REMAINS CENTER WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 43N150W AND INDUCING ONLY A MODEST PRES GRADIENT ACROSS W AND NW PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS WAS YIELDING MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS KT N OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH W OF 120W EXCEPT FOR A NARROW ZONE OF 20 KT NE WINDS JUST N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 127W. A GRADUALLY DISSIPATING 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 20.5N114W WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY THURSDAY WITH NO SURFACE WINDS OF EVEN 20 KT EXPECTED. THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BROKEN DOWN S OF THIS WEAKENING LOW AND HAS REALIGNED ITSELF FARTHER S ALONG 14N AT 111W. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE MONSOON TROUGH E AND SE OF DORA WILL REMAIN WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT. DEEP LAYER E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO CENTRAL AMERICA THE NEXT FEW DAYS... BRINGING ABOUT A MORE TYPICAL MID-SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN...AND A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL-NOCTURNAL CYCLES. A WEAK PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT WILL COMMENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH PULSING WINDS REACHING 20 KT IN THE EARLY MORNING AND FADING BY LATE AFTERNOON. LONG PERIOD S SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN TODAY WITH SUBSIDING LONG PERIOD SWELLS. BY LATE FRIDAY...SHORTER PERIOD N TO NW SWELL WILL BE ENTERING OUR NORTHERN BOUNDARY AND 8 TO 10 FT SEAS...PRODUCED BY STRONG NWLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS AREA OF SEAS WILL LIKELY BE ADDED TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST. $$ STRIPLING