000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200305 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED JUL 20 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE DORA IS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 99.9W AT 19/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 240 MI S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING WNW AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM OF THE CENTER. DORA IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND MAY FURTHER INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT DAY AS IT MOVES WNW. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 12N89W...THEN RESUMES NEAR 14N111W TO 07N140W. ITCZ IS W OF 140W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. ...DISCUSSION... NE TRADE WINDS REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT N OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH W OF 115W EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT NE TRADE WINDS W OF 135W. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N114W WITH NO SURFACE WINDS OF EVEN 20 KT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY THURSDAY. THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BROKEN DOWN S OF THIS WEAKENING LOW AND IS NOW REALIGNED ITSELF FARTHER S ALONG 14N AT 111W. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF DORA WILL REMAIN WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT. DEEP LAYER E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO CENTRAL AMERICA THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRINGING ABOUT A MORE TYPICAL MID-SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN...AND A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL-NOCTURNAL CYCLES. A WEAK PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT WILL COMMENCE EARLY ON THURSDAY WITH PULSING WINDS REACHING 20 KT IN THE EARLY MORNING AND FADING BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT AND THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER. GIVEN THAT IT APPEARS TO BE A SPORADIC FEATURE AT THIS POINT...THESE WINDS ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST. LONG PERIOD S SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN TODAY WITH SUBSIDING LONG PERIOD SWELLS. BY LATE FRIDAY...SHORT PERIOD N SWELL WILL BE ENTERING OUR NORTHERN BOUNDARY AND 8 TO 10 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY BE ADDED TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST. $$ LANDSEA 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200305 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED JUL 20 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE DORA IS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 99.9W AT 19/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 240 MI S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING WNW AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM OF THE CENTER. DORA IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND MAY FURTHER INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT DAY AS IT MOVES WNW. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 12N89W...THEN RESUMES NEAR 14N111W TO 07N140W. ITCZ IS W OF 140W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. ...DISCUSSION... NE TRADE WINDS REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT N OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH W OF 115W EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT NE TRADE WINDS W OF 135W. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N114W WITH NO SURFACE WINDS OF EVEN 20 KT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY THURSDAY. THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BROKEN DOWN S OF THIS WEAKENING LOW AND IS NOW REALIGNED ITSELF FARTHER S ALONG 14N AT 111W. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF DORA WILL REMAIN WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT. DEEP LAYER E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO CENTRAL AMERICA THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRINGING ABOUT A MORE TYPICAL MID-SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN...AND A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL-NOCTURNAL CYCLES. A WEAK PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT WILL COMMENCE EARLY ON THURSDAY WITH PULSING WINDS REACHING 20 KT IN THE EARLY MORNING AND FADING BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT AND THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER. GIVEN THAT IT APPEARS TO BE A SPORADIC FEATURE AT THIS POINT...THESE WINDS ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST. LONG PERIOD S SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN TODAY WITH SUBSIDING LONG PERIOD SWELLS. BY LATE FRIDAY...SHORT PERIOD N SWELL WILL BE ENTERING OUR NORTHERN BOUNDARY AND 8 TO 10 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY BE ADDED TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST. $$ LANDSEA