000 AXPZ20 KNHC 192205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE JUL 19 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM DORA IS CENTERED NEAR 12.8N 98.6W AT 19/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 245 MI S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO...MOVING WNW AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO COIL AROUND THE CENTER...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 240 NM W SEMICIRCLE. DORA IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION. IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT AND INTENSIFY FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS AS IT MOVES WNW. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N82W TO 09N88W... THEN RESUMES NEAR 16N101W TO LOW PRES NEAR 20N112W TO 11N117W TO 07N140W. ITCZ W OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 118W AND 122W. ...DISCUSSION... NE TRADE WINDS REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT N OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH W OF 115W EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT NE TRADE WINDS W OF 135W. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N112W WITH NO SURFACE WINDS OF EVEN 20 KT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT ANCHORS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF MONSOON TROUGH. THE LOW IS EXPECTED DRIFTS NW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY THURSDAY. THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL THEN BREAK DOWN S OF THIS WEAKENING LOW AND REALIGN ITSELF FARTHER S ALONG 13-14N WED AS DORA APPROACHES. EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO SHIFT NORTHWARD E OF T.S. DORA AS IT TRACKS W-NW. THE TROUGH WILL THEN RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AGAIN NEAR 10N E OF 100W WED AND THU AS DORA MOVES AWAY. SW MONSOON WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS BETWEEN 105W-120W AS THE MONSOON TROUGH BREAKS UP INTO SHORTER SEGMENTS. DEEP LAYER E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO CENTRAL AMERICA THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRINGING ABOUT A MORE TYPICAL MID-SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN...AND A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL-NOCTURNAL CYCLES. LONG PERIOD S SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY WED WITH SUBSIDING LONG PERIOD SWELLS. THE RETURN OF E WINDS TO CENTRAL AMERICA WILL ENHANCE E-NE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND BUILD SEAS DOWNSTREAM FROM PAPAGAYO TO 6-7 FT BY THU MORNING. WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT MAY REACH OUR 20 KT THRESHOLD THU MORNING. $$ MUNDELL/LANDSEA 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 192205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE JUL 19 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM DORA IS CENTERED NEAR 12.8N 98.6W AT 19/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 245 MI S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO...MOVING WNW AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO COIL AROUND THE CENTER...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 240 NM W SEMICIRCLE. DORA IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION. IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT AND INTENSIFY FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS AS IT MOVES WNW. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N82W TO 09N88W... THEN RESUMES NEAR 16N101W TO LOW PRES NEAR 20N112W TO 11N117W TO 07N140W. ITCZ W OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 118W AND 122W. ...DISCUSSION... NE TRADE WINDS REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT N OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH W OF 115W EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT NE TRADE WINDS W OF 135W. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N112W WITH NO SURFACE WINDS OF EVEN 20 KT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT ANCHORS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF MONSOON TROUGH. THE LOW IS EXPECTED DRIFTS NW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY THURSDAY. THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL THEN BREAK DOWN S OF THIS WEAKENING LOW AND REALIGN ITSELF FARTHER S ALONG 13-14N WED AS DORA APPROACHES. EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO SHIFT NORTHWARD E OF T.S. DORA AS IT TRACKS W-NW. THE TROUGH WILL THEN RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AGAIN NEAR 10N E OF 100W WED AND THU AS DORA MOVES AWAY. SW MONSOON WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS BETWEEN 105W-120W AS THE MONSOON TROUGH BREAKS UP INTO SHORTER SEGMENTS. DEEP LAYER E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO CENTRAL AMERICA THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRINGING ABOUT A MORE TYPICAL MID-SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN...AND A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL-NOCTURNAL CYCLES. LONG PERIOD S SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY WED WITH SUBSIDING LONG PERIOD SWELLS. THE RETURN OF E WINDS TO CENTRAL AMERICA WILL ENHANCE E-NE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND BUILD SEAS DOWNSTREAM FROM PAPAGAYO TO 6-7 FT BY THU MORNING. WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT MAY REACH OUR 20 KT THRESHOLD THU MORNING. $$ MUNDELL/LANDSEA