000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191546 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE JUL 19 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM DORA IS CENTERED NEAR 11.9N 97.1W AT 19/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 265 MI S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO...MOVING WNW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO COIL AROUND THE CENTER...WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 210 NM N AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLES. DORA IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION. IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND INTENSIFY FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS AS IT MOVES WNW. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO TROPICAL STORM DORA NEAR 12N96W...THEN RESUMES NEAR 15N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 18N113W TO 11N117W TO 08N140W...THEN AS AN ITCZ W OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 10N BETWEEN 118W AND 122W. ...DISCUSSION... NE TRADE WINDS REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT N OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH W OF 115W. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N111W REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT ANCHORS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF MONSOON TROUGH. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS NW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS. THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL THEN BREAK DOWN S OF THIS WEAKENING LOW AND REALIGN ITSELF FARTHER S ALONG 13-14N WED AS DORA APPROACHES. EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO SHIFT NORTHWARD E OF T.S. DORA AS IT TRACKS W-NW. THE TROUGH WILL THEN RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AGAIN NEAR 10N E OF 100W WED AND THU AS DORA MOVES AWAY. SW MONSOON WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS BETWEEN 105W-120W AS THE MONSOON TROUGH BREAKS UP INTO SHORTER SEGMENTS. DEEP LAYER E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO CENTRAL AMERICA THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRINGING ABOUT A MORE TYPICAL MID SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN...AND A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL-NOCTURNAL CYCLES. LONG PERIOD S SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY WED WITH SUBSIDING LONG PERIOD SWELLS. THE RETURN OF E WINDS TO CENTRAL AMERICA WILL ENHANCE E-NE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND BUILD SEAS DOWNSTREAM FROM PAPAGAYO TO 6-7 FT BY THU MORNING. $$ MUNDELL 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191546 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE JUL 19 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM DORA IS CENTERED NEAR 11.9N 97.1W AT 19/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 265 MI S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO...MOVING WNW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO COIL AROUND THE CENTER...WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 210 NM N AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLES. DORA IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION. IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND INTENSIFY FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS AS IT MOVES WNW. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO TROPICAL STORM DORA NEAR 12N96W...THEN RESUMES NEAR 15N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 18N113W TO 11N117W TO 08N140W...THEN AS AN ITCZ W OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 10N BETWEEN 118W AND 122W. ...DISCUSSION... NE TRADE WINDS REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT N OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH W OF 115W. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N111W REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT ANCHORS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF MONSOON TROUGH. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS NW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS. THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL THEN BREAK DOWN S OF THIS WEAKENING LOW AND REALIGN ITSELF FARTHER S ALONG 13-14N WED AS DORA APPROACHES. EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO SHIFT NORTHWARD E OF T.S. DORA AS IT TRACKS W-NW. THE TROUGH WILL THEN RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AGAIN NEAR 10N E OF 100W WED AND THU AS DORA MOVES AWAY. SW MONSOON WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS BETWEEN 105W-120W AS THE MONSOON TROUGH BREAKS UP INTO SHORTER SEGMENTS. DEEP LAYER E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO CENTRAL AMERICA THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRINGING ABOUT A MORE TYPICAL MID SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN...AND A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL-NOCTURNAL CYCLES. LONG PERIOD S SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY WED WITH SUBSIDING LONG PERIOD SWELLS. THE RETURN OF E WINDS TO CENTRAL AMERICA WILL ENHANCE E-NE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND BUILD SEAS DOWNSTREAM FROM PAPAGAYO TO 6-7 FT BY THU MORNING. $$ MUNDELL 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191546 RRA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE JUL 19 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM DORA IS CENTERED NEAR 11.9N 97.1W AT 19/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 265 MI S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO...MOVING WNW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO COIL AROUND THE CENTER...WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 210 NM N AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLES. DORA IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION. IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND INTENSIFY FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS AS IT MOVES WNW. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO TROPICAL STORM DORA NEAR 12N96W...THEN RESUMES NEAR 15N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 18N113W TO 11N117W TO 08N140W...THEN AS AN ITCZ W OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 10N BETWEEN 118W AND 122W. ...DISCUSSION... NE TRADE WINDS REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT N OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH W OF 115W. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N111W REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT ANCHORS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF MONSOON TROUGH. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS NW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS. THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL THEN BREAK DOWN S OF THIS WEAKENING LOW AND REALIGN ITSELF FARTHER S ALONG 13-14N WED AS DORA APPROACHES. EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO SHIFT NORTHWARD E OF T.S. DORA AS IT TRACKS W-NW. THE TROUGH WILL THEN RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AGAIN NEAR 10N E OF 100W WED AND THU AS DORA MOVES AWAY. SW MONSOON WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS BETWEEN 105W-120W AS THE MONSOON TROUGH BREAKS UP INTO SHORTER SEGMENTS. DEEP LAYER E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO CENTRAL AMERICA THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRINGING ABOUT A MORE TYPICAL MID SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN...AND A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL-NOCTURNAL CYCLES. LONG PERIOD S SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY WED WITH SUBSIDING LONG PERIOD SWELLS. THE RETURN OF E WINDS TO CENTRAL AMERICA WILL ENHANCE E-NE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND BUILD SEAS DOWNSTREAM FROM PAPAGAYO TO 6-7 FT BY THU MORNING. $$ MUNDELL 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191546 RRA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE JUL 19 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM DORA IS CENTERED NEAR 11.9N 97.1W AT 19/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 265 MI S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO...MOVING WNW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO COIL AROUND THE CENTER...WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 210 NM N AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLES. DORA IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION. IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND INTENSIFY FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS AS IT MOVES WNW. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO TROPICAL STORM DORA NEAR 12N96W...THEN RESUMES NEAR 15N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 18N113W TO 11N117W TO 08N140W...THEN AS AN ITCZ W OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 10N BETWEEN 118W AND 122W. ...DISCUSSION... NE TRADE WINDS REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT N OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH W OF 115W. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N111W REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT ANCHORS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF MONSOON TROUGH. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS NW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS. THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL THEN BREAK DOWN S OF THIS WEAKENING LOW AND REALIGN ITSELF FARTHER S ALONG 13-14N WED AS DORA APPROACHES. EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO SHIFT NORTHWARD E OF T.S. DORA AS IT TRACKS W-NW. THE TROUGH WILL THEN RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AGAIN NEAR 10N E OF 100W WED AND THU AS DORA MOVES AWAY. SW MONSOON WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS BETWEEN 105W-120W AS THE MONSOON TROUGH BREAKS UP INTO SHORTER SEGMENTS. DEEP LAYER E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO CENTRAL AMERICA THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRINGING ABOUT A MORE TYPICAL MID SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN...AND A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL-NOCTURNAL CYCLES. LONG PERIOD S SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY WED WITH SUBSIDING LONG PERIOD SWELLS. THE RETURN OF E WINDS TO CENTRAL AMERICA WILL ENHANCE E-NE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND BUILD SEAS DOWNSTREAM FROM PAPAGAYO TO 6-7 FT BY THU MORNING. $$ MUNDELL