000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190259 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE JUL 19 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM DORA IS CENTERED NEAR 11.1N 94.1W AT 19/0300 UTC OR 355 NM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO MOVING W AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE. DORA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/ WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N86W TO 11N90W THEN RESUMES NEAR 12N97W TO A 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 17N109W TO 11N115W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 107W...AND FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 109W AND 124W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SKIRTS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ANALYZED ALONG 32N130W TO 31N137W TO 33N147W. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS 30N THIS EVENING CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT OF WINDS SHIFTING TO NE AT AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 7 FT IN THE NW PORTION. THIS FRONT IS DISRUPTING THE USUAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND RIDGE GENERALLY N OF 15N AND THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 10N. AS A RESULT E-NE TRADE WINDS ARE 10-15 KT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 17N109W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH UNDER A FAIRLY WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 110W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS NW OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS GRADUALLY BECOMING LESS ACTIVE ACROSS THE BASIN AS LOW LEVEL VORTICITY FOCUSES AROUND TROPICAL STORM DORA. EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG WITH DORA AS IT TRACKS W-NW THEN RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AGAIN NEAR 10N E OF 100W BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES AWAY. SW MONSOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE MONSOON TROUGH BREAKS UP INTO SHORTER SEGMENTS ACCOMPANIED BY WEAKER SURFACE WIND FLOW. OTHERWISE...LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER PERIOD SWELLS...14 TO 18 SECONDS...REACHING THE WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTS BY 20/0000 UTC. $$ HUFFMAN 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190259 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE JUL 19 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM DORA IS CENTERED NEAR 11.1N 94.1W AT 19/0300 UTC OR 355 NM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO MOVING W AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE. DORA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/ WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N86W TO 11N90W THEN RESUMES NEAR 12N97W TO A 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 17N109W TO 11N115W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 107W...AND FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 109W AND 124W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SKIRTS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ANALYZED ALONG 32N130W TO 31N137W TO 33N147W. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS 30N THIS EVENING CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT OF WINDS SHIFTING TO NE AT AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 7 FT IN THE NW PORTION. THIS FRONT IS DISRUPTING THE USUAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND RIDGE GENERALLY N OF 15N AND THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 10N. AS A RESULT E-NE TRADE WINDS ARE 10-15 KT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 17N109W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH UNDER A FAIRLY WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 110W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS NW OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS GRADUALLY BECOMING LESS ACTIVE ACROSS THE BASIN AS LOW LEVEL VORTICITY FOCUSES AROUND TROPICAL STORM DORA. EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG WITH DORA AS IT TRACKS W-NW THEN RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AGAIN NEAR 10N E OF 100W BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES AWAY. SW MONSOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE MONSOON TROUGH BREAKS UP INTO SHORTER SEGMENTS ACCOMPANIED BY WEAKER SURFACE WIND FLOW. OTHERWISE...LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER PERIOD SWELLS...14 TO 18 SECONDS...REACHING THE WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTS BY 20/0000 UTC. $$ HUFFMAN