000 AXPZ20 KNHC 182201 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON JUL 18 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM DORA IS CENTERED NEAR 10.7N 92.9W AT 18/2100 UTC OR 360 NM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO MOVING W AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER AND DORA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL LOWS... A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 17N108W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH UNDER A FAIRLY WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 110W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A WEAKENING TREND AS IT DRIFTS NW OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N84W TO 10N90W THEN RESUMES NEAR 12N95W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 17N108W TO 11N113W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 99W AND 106W...AND FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 109W AND 124W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SKIRTS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ANALYZED ALONG 32N130W TO 31N137W TO 33N147W. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS 30N THIS EVENING CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT OF WINDS SHIFTING TO NE AT AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 7 FT IN THE NW PORTION. THIS FRONT IS DISRUPTING THE USUAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND RIDGE GENERALLY N OF 15N AND THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 10N. AS A RESULT E-NE TRADE WINDS ARE 10-15 KT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS GRADUALLY BECOMING LESS ACTIVE ACROSS THE BASIN AS LOW LEVEL VORTICITY FOCUSES AROUND TROPICAL STORM DORA. EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG WITH DORA AS IT TRACKS W-NW THEN RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AGAIN NEAR 10N E OF 100W BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES AWAY. SW MONSOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE MONSOON TROUGH BREAKS UP INTO SHORTER SEGMENTS ACCOMPANIED BY WEAKER SURFACE WIND FLOW. OTHERWISE...LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER PERIOD SWELLS...14 TO 18 SECONDS...REACHING THE WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTS BY 20/0000 UTC. $$ HUFFMAN 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 182201 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON JUL 18 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM DORA IS CENTERED NEAR 10.7N 92.9W AT 18/2100 UTC OR 360 NM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO MOVING W AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER AND DORA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL LOWS... A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 17N108W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH UNDER A FAIRLY WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 110W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A WEAKENING TREND AS IT DRIFTS NW OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N84W TO 10N90W THEN RESUMES NEAR 12N95W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 17N108W TO 11N113W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 99W AND 106W...AND FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 109W AND 124W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SKIRTS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ANALYZED ALONG 32N130W TO 31N137W TO 33N147W. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS 30N THIS EVENING CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT OF WINDS SHIFTING TO NE AT AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 7 FT IN THE NW PORTION. THIS FRONT IS DISRUPTING THE USUAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND RIDGE GENERALLY N OF 15N AND THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 10N. AS A RESULT E-NE TRADE WINDS ARE 10-15 KT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS GRADUALLY BECOMING LESS ACTIVE ACROSS THE BASIN AS LOW LEVEL VORTICITY FOCUSES AROUND TROPICAL STORM DORA. EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG WITH DORA AS IT TRACKS W-NW THEN RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AGAIN NEAR 10N E OF 100W BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES AWAY. SW MONSOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE MONSOON TROUGH BREAKS UP INTO SHORTER SEGMENTS ACCOMPANIED BY WEAKER SURFACE WIND FLOW. OTHERWISE...LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER PERIOD SWELLS...14 TO 18 SECONDS...REACHING THE WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTS BY 20/0000 UTC. $$ HUFFMAN