000 AXPZ20 KNHC 181611 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON JUL 18 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 91.5W 1006 MB AT 1500 UTC MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SAT IMAGERY INDICATES T.D. 04E HAS DEVELOPED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPS NEARLY HALFWAY AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN A CLOUD MINIMUM REGION SURROUNDED BY THE CONVECTIVE BAND. THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS INDICATIVE OF A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM CLOUD PATTERN. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ24 KNHC AND AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP4. ...TROPICAL LOWS... A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N109W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH UNDER A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. DRIER STABLE AIR IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE LOW. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKEN. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E TO 15N96W TO LOW PRES NEAR 17N109W TO 12N114W TO 09N137W...THEN ITCZ BEYOND 07N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 110W... AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 126W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA STRETCHES FROM 35N128W TO 32N134W TO 33N145W. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS 30N AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WITH THE PRIMARY EFFECT WINDS SHIFTING TO NE AT AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6-7 FT IN NW PORTION. THIS FRONT IS DISRUPTING THE USUAL PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUB TROPICAL HIGH NEAR 35/40N AND THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N. AS A RESULT E-NE TRADE WINDS ARE 10-15 KT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS GRADUALLY BECOMING LESS ACTIVE ACROSS THE BASIN AS LOW LEVEL VORTICITY FOCUSES AROUND DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE 04E. EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG WITH THE TC AS MOVES IT WNW THEN REESTABLISH ITSELF AGAIN NEAR 10N E OF 100W BY WED OR THU AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES AWAY. SW MONSOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE MONSOON TROUGH BREAKS UP INTO SHORTER SEGMENTS ACCOMPANIED BY WEAKER WIND FLOW. LONG PERIOD S SWELL HAS CROSSED THE EQUATOR AND WILL PROPAGATE TO THE CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO COASTS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. $$ MUNDELL 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 181611 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON JUL 18 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 91.5W 1006 MB AT 1500 UTC MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SAT IMAGERY INDICATES T.D. 04E HAS DEVELOPED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPS NEARLY HALFWAY AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN A CLOUD MINIMUM REGION SURROUNDED BY THE CONVECTIVE BAND. THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS INDICATIVE OF A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM CLOUD PATTERN. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ24 KNHC AND AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP4. ...TROPICAL LOWS... A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N109W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH UNDER A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. DRIER STABLE AIR IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE LOW. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKEN. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E TO 15N96W TO LOW PRES NEAR 17N109W TO 12N114W TO 09N137W...THEN ITCZ BEYOND 07N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 110W... AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 126W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA STRETCHES FROM 35N128W TO 32N134W TO 33N145W. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS 30N AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WITH THE PRIMARY EFFECT WINDS SHIFTING TO NE AT AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6-7 FT IN NW PORTION. THIS FRONT IS DISRUPTING THE USUAL PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUB TROPICAL HIGH NEAR 35/40N AND THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N. AS A RESULT E-NE TRADE WINDS ARE 10-15 KT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS GRADUALLY BECOMING LESS ACTIVE ACROSS THE BASIN AS LOW LEVEL VORTICITY FOCUSES AROUND DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE 04E. EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG WITH THE TC AS MOVES IT WNW THEN REESTABLISH ITSELF AGAIN NEAR 10N E OF 100W BY WED OR THU AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES AWAY. SW MONSOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE MONSOON TROUGH BREAKS UP INTO SHORTER SEGMENTS ACCOMPANIED BY WEAKER WIND FLOW. LONG PERIOD S SWELL HAS CROSSED THE EQUATOR AND WILL PROPAGATE TO THE CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO COASTS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. $$ MUNDELL