000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161546 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JUL 16 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS E TO W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 11N INTO AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY ANALYZED AS AN 1008 MB SURFACE LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COSTA RICA AT 10.5N84W. THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS NW OVER THE EXTREME E PACIFIC WATERS...PARALLELING THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST...TO A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW ESTIMATED AT 15.5N95.5W...AND CONTINUING NW INTO A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW ESTIMATED AT 17.5N104W. THE MONSOON TROUGH THEN TURNS ABRUPTLY SW PASSING THROUGH 13N110W TO 09N137W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THE AXIS OF THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE BEGINS...AND CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 06N140W. OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVELS CLOUDS...WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION...IS NOTED OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS TO THE N OF 05N BETWEEN 79W AND 102W. THE OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE NW WITHIN 360 NM OF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CONCENTRATED WITHIN 150 NM OF MEXICAN COAST FROM 102W TO 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N102W TO 10N113W...THEN NARROWS TO ABOUT 60 NM WIDE AND BECOMES MORE ISOLATED AT IT CONTINUES W ALONG POINTS 09N118W TO 11N123W TO 10N133W. ...DISCUSSION... A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS ANCHORED ALONG THE W COAST OF N AMERICA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CONTINUING S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N124W TO A BASE AT 20N128W. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED FROM SW ARIZONA TO 18N118W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI STATIONARY W OF THE AREA AT 21N146W...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING E INTO THE AREA JUST TO THE S OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CRESTING AT 19N132W. UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD THOUGH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND IS NOW REACHING A LINE FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT 36N122W TO 32N130W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY TO THE N OF 16N W OF 117W...AND W OF A LINE FROM THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO OVER SE ARIZONA AT 32N112W. A LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE CENTRAL N AMERICA ORIGINATING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER OKLAHOMA. AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS SW ACROSS NW OLD MEXICO TO A GENTLE CREST NEAR 25N113W...AND IS RETARDING THE FORWARD ADVANCE OF THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED UPPER TROUGHS. THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS N OF 12N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W...BUT IS INTERRUPTED BY AN EMBEDDED UPPER CYCLONE FILLING NEAR 17N107W...AND ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE DEEPENING OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AT 23N97W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED MONSOON TROUGH...ALONG THE W COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED SW OVER THE AREA TO THE S OF 20N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. AN TROPICAL UPPER ANTICYLONE HAS FORMED NEAR 09N128W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E...ROUGHLY OVER THE LOWER LEVEL MONSOON TROUGH AXIS...TO A CREST AT 07N108W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FANNING OUT IN AREA BOUNDED BY 03N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 135W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM 13N65W TO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 11N85W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM NW VENEZUELA ACROSS COLOMBIA TO A CREST OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 02N108W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE LARGE AREA OF DENSE CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF 05N E OF 110W. THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING THE DEBRIS MOISTURE S ACROSS THE EQUATOR TO THE E OF 110W. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WITH LOCALIZED TRAINING DEEP CONVECTION...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION IS PRESENTED AT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 15-20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. REINFORCING SW SWELL WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR LATER TODAY BETWEEN 90W AND 120W. SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME AS THE THREE SURFACE LOW MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER COSTA RICA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS W ALONG 10N. EXPECT TO BEGIN TO MENTION POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ON THE NEXT CYCLE OF ALPHANUMERIC AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS. $$ NELSON 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161546 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JUL 16 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS E TO W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 11N INTO AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY ANALYZED AS AN 1008 MB SURFACE LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COSTA RICA AT 10.5N84W. THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS NW OVER THE EXTREME E PACIFIC WATERS...PARALLELING THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST...TO A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW ESTIMATED AT 15.5N95.5W...AND CONTINUING NW INTO A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW ESTIMATED AT 17.5N104W. THE MONSOON TROUGH THEN TURNS ABRUPTLY SW PASSING THROUGH 13N110W TO 09N137W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THE AXIS OF THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE BEGINS...AND CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 06N140W. OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVELS CLOUDS...WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION...IS NOTED OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS TO THE N OF 05N BETWEEN 79W AND 102W. THE OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE NW WITHIN 360 NM OF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CONCENTRATED WITHIN 150 NM OF MEXICAN COAST FROM 102W TO 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N102W TO 10N113W...THEN NARROWS TO ABOUT 60 NM WIDE AND BECOMES MORE ISOLATED AT IT CONTINUES W ALONG POINTS 09N118W TO 11N123W TO 10N133W. ...DISCUSSION... A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS ANCHORED ALONG THE W COAST OF N AMERICA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CONTINUING S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N124W TO A BASE AT 20N128W. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED FROM SW ARIZONA TO 18N118W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI STATIONARY W OF THE AREA AT 21N146W...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING E INTO THE AREA JUST TO THE S OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CRESTING AT 19N132W. UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD THOUGH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND IS NOW REACHING A LINE FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT 36N122W TO 32N130W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY TO THE N OF 16N W OF 117W...AND W OF A LINE FROM THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO OVER SE ARIZONA AT 32N112W. A LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE CENTRAL N AMERICA ORIGINATING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER OKLAHOMA. AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS SW ACROSS NW OLD MEXICO TO A GENTLE CREST NEAR 25N113W...AND IS RETARDING THE FORWARD ADVANCE OF THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED UPPER TROUGHS. THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS N OF 12N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W...BUT IS INTERRUPTED BY AN EMBEDDED UPPER CYCLONE FILLING NEAR 17N107W...AND ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE DEEPENING OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AT 23N97W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED MONSOON TROUGH...ALONG THE W COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED SW OVER THE AREA TO THE S OF 20N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. AN TROPICAL UPPER ANTICYLONE HAS FORMED NEAR 09N128W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E...ROUGHLY OVER THE LOWER LEVEL MONSOON TROUGH AXIS...TO A CREST AT 07N108W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FANNING OUT IN AREA BOUNDED BY 03N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 135W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM 13N65W TO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 11N85W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM NW VENEZUELA ACROSS COLOMBIA TO A CREST OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 02N108W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE LARGE AREA OF DENSE CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF 05N E OF 110W. THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING THE DEBRIS MOISTURE S ACROSS THE EQUATOR TO THE E OF 110W. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WITH LOCALIZED TRAINING DEEP CONVECTION...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION IS PRESENTED AT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 15-20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. REINFORCING SW SWELL WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR LATER TODAY BETWEEN 90W AND 120W. SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME AS THE THREE SURFACE LOW MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER COSTA RICA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS W ALONG 10N. EXPECT TO BEGIN TO MENTION POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ON THE NEXT CYCLE OF ALPHANUMERIC AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS. $$ NELSON