000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161011 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT JUL 16 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COASTAL COLOMBIA ALONG 10N WWD ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 10N TO LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 10.5N83W THEN MEANDERS NW ALONG PACIFIC COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO A SECOND LOW NEAR 15.5N95.5W 1007 MB THEN CONTINUES NW ALONG THE MEXICAN NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS TO LOW PRES NEAR 18.5N105W 1004 MB...THEN RESUMES IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FROM NEAR 16N110W TO 13N122W TO 10N131W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE EPAC INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS TO 07.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 05N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH FROM 92W TO 106W...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION UP TO 240 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 130W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED NEAR THE ITCZ AT THIS TIME. ...DISCUSSION... A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS REORGANIZING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST OF N AMERICA...AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO DISCUSSION AREA TO A WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTEX AT 30N127W WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 22N131W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 22N W OF 118W...AND IS DOMINATED BY GENERAL CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE. TO THE SW...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 22N146W AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT INCLUDES MOST OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA/GULF OF CALIFORNIA REGION...AND CONTINUES TO ANCHOR A BROAD UPPER LEVEL OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN STRADDLING N AMERICA N OF 30N. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS GENERAL POSITION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LEAVING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. S OF THIS STRONG RIDGE...AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WAS EMBEDDED IN THE PROGRESSIVE ELY FLOW ALOFT AND MOVING W TOWARD CENTRAL MEXICO...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND AND EXIT CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA MON. S THROUGH SW OF THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...NE TO ELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LIGHTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR VENTILATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC. AT LOWER LEVELS...A WELL DEFINED AND ORGANIZED MONSOONAL CIRCULATION CONTINUES IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...CENTERED ON A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE SW COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N106W EXTENDING SE IN A GRADUALLY NARROWING ZONE ALONG COASTAL CENTRAL AMERICA TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION STRADDLING COSTA RICA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NICARAGUA...PANAMA...AND THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN. DEEP LAYERED MONSOONAL FLOW CONTINUES GENERALLY FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 80W AND 115W...AND CONTINUES TO ABSORB TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING IN THIS BROAD ZONE OF MONSOONAL FLOW FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 81W AND 87W AND FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 90W AND 102W. AT THE SURFACE...A MONSOONAL TROUGH IS DESCRIBED ABOVE...WITH EMBEDDED LOWS INDICATED. TPW PRODUCTS SHOW VERY HIGH MOISTURE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM NEAR MANZANILLO TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. THESE TWO ZONES WILL BE THE FOCUS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AND COULD LEAD TO LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WITH MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS STEEP TERRAIN. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTERS SITUATED IN THESE TWO EXTREMELY WET ZONES. A LOW CENTER OFFSHORE OF MANZANILLO IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY W-SW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SLOWLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. MEANWHILE A SECOND LOW ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL BORDER OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W ACROSS THESE COUNTRIES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. AS THIS SYSTEM EMERGES IN THE E PACIFIC...GLOBAL MODELS ARE NEARLY UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THIS FEATURE MOVES WESTWARD. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 15-20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... AND 10-15 KT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A NEW PULSE OF LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE EQUATOR AND WILL EVENTUALLY MIX WITH THE SW SWELLS IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. $$ STRIPLING 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161011 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT JUL 16 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COASTAL COLOMBIA ALONG 10N WWD ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 10N TO LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 10.5N83W THEN MEANDERS NW ALONG PACIFIC COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO A SECOND LOW NEAR 15.5N95.5W 1007 MB THEN CONTINUES NW ALONG THE MEXICAN NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS TO LOW PRES NEAR 18.5N105W 1004 MB...THEN RESUMES IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FROM NEAR 16N110W TO 13N122W TO 10N131W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE EPAC INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS TO 07.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 05N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH FROM 92W TO 106W...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION UP TO 240 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 130W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED NEAR THE ITCZ AT THIS TIME. ...DISCUSSION... A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS REORGANIZING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST OF N AMERICA...AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO DISCUSSION AREA TO A WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTEX AT 30N127W WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 22N131W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 22N W OF 118W...AND IS DOMINATED BY GENERAL CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE. TO THE SW...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 22N146W AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT INCLUDES MOST OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA/GULF OF CALIFORNIA REGION...AND CONTINUES TO ANCHOR A BROAD UPPER LEVEL OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN STRADDLING N AMERICA N OF 30N. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS GENERAL POSITION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LEAVING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. S OF THIS STRONG RIDGE...AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WAS EMBEDDED IN THE PROGRESSIVE ELY FLOW ALOFT AND MOVING W TOWARD CENTRAL MEXICO...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND AND EXIT CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA MON. S THROUGH SW OF THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...NE TO ELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LIGHTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR VENTILATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC. AT LOWER LEVELS...A WELL DEFINED AND ORGANIZED MONSOONAL CIRCULATION CONTINUES IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...CENTERED ON A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE SW COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N106W EXTENDING SE IN A GRADUALLY NARROWING ZONE ALONG COASTAL CENTRAL AMERICA TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION STRADDLING COSTA RICA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NICARAGUA...PANAMA...AND THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN. DEEP LAYERED MONSOONAL FLOW CONTINUES GENERALLY FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 80W AND 115W...AND CONTINUES TO ABSORB TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING IN THIS BROAD ZONE OF MONSOONAL FLOW FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 81W AND 87W AND FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 90W AND 102W. AT THE SURFACE...A MONSOONAL TROUGH IS DESCRIBED ABOVE...WITH EMBEDDED LOWS INDICATED. TPW PRODUCTS SHOW VERY HIGH MOISTURE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM NEAR MANZANILLO TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. THESE TWO ZONES WILL BE THE FOCUS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AND COULD LEAD TO LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WITH MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS STEEP TERRAIN. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTERS SITUATED IN THESE TWO EXTREMELY WET ZONES. A LOW CENTER OFFSHORE OF MANZANILLO IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY W-SW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SLOWLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. MEANWHILE A SECOND LOW ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL BORDER OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W ACROSS THESE COUNTRIES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. AS THIS SYSTEM EMERGES IN THE E PACIFIC...GLOBAL MODELS ARE NEARLY UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THIS FEATURE MOVES WESTWARD. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 15-20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... AND 10-15 KT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A NEW PULSE OF LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE EQUATOR AND WILL EVENTUALLY MIX WITH THE SW SWELLS IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. $$ STRIPLING