000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160249 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT JUL 16 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 12N86W TO 1006 MB LOW PRES AT 15N95W TO 17N102W...THEN RESUMES NEAR 15N112W TO 10N130W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 10N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 05N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 92W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 118W AND 126W. ...DISCUSSION... A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 32N124W TO 23N133W. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SW OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ALONG 123W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED JUST W OF THE AREA AT 22N149W THAT CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH TO 18N123W. THE UPPER LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY N OF 15N W OF 115W. A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT INCLUDES MOST OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA/GULF OF CALIFORNIA REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW INTO THE NE PACIFIC WATERS NEAR 18N115W. THIS STOUT RIDGING IS RETARDING THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGHS. THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE TROPICS E OF 115W...BUT IS INTERRUPTED BY AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 21N94W UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH... ALONG THE W COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 110W AND ALSO MERGES WITH ADDITIONAL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ...ROUGHLY COVERING THE AREA FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 138W. THE LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE W COAST OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 21N94W EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD EMBEDDED IN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...REACHING A POSITION OVER THE E PACIFIC NEAR 20N110W ON SUN. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST NEAR 16N105W ON SUN WITH A LARGE AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW CONTINUING TO THE SE OF THIS SURFACE LOW. THE 1007 MB SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN COSTA RICA MAY ALSO MAINTAIN ITS CIRCULATION AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC ALONG 10N THIS WEEKEND. UPPER DIFFLUENCE...ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE...AND CONVERGENT MONSOONAL LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED TRAINING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 15-20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... AND 10-15 KT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 15-25 KT...SEAS TO 11 FT....WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 15N E OF 110W THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NEW PULSE OF SOUTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE EQUATOR LATE SATURDAY EVENTUALLY MIXING WITH THE SW SWELLS IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW. $$ HUFFMAN 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160249 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT JUL 16 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 12N86W TO 1006 MB LOW PRES AT 15N95W TO 17N102W...THEN RESUMES NEAR 15N112W TO 10N130W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 10N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 05N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 92W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 118W AND 126W. ...DISCUSSION... A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 32N124W TO 23N133W. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SW OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ALONG 123W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED JUST W OF THE AREA AT 22N149W THAT CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH TO 18N123W. THE UPPER LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY N OF 15N W OF 115W. A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT INCLUDES MOST OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA/GULF OF CALIFORNIA REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW INTO THE NE PACIFIC WATERS NEAR 18N115W. THIS STOUT RIDGING IS RETARDING THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGHS. THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE TROPICS E OF 115W...BUT IS INTERRUPTED BY AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 21N94W UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH... ALONG THE W COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 110W AND ALSO MERGES WITH ADDITIONAL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ...ROUGHLY COVERING THE AREA FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 138W. THE LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE W COAST OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 21N94W EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD EMBEDDED IN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...REACHING A POSITION OVER THE E PACIFIC NEAR 20N110W ON SUN. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST NEAR 16N105W ON SUN WITH A LARGE AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW CONTINUING TO THE SE OF THIS SURFACE LOW. THE 1007 MB SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN COSTA RICA MAY ALSO MAINTAIN ITS CIRCULATION AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC ALONG 10N THIS WEEKEND. UPPER DIFFLUENCE...ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE...AND CONVERGENT MONSOONAL LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED TRAINING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 15-20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... AND 10-15 KT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 15-25 KT...SEAS TO 11 FT....WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 15N E OF 110W THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NEW PULSE OF SOUTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE EQUATOR LATE SATURDAY EVENTUALLY MIXING WITH THE SW SWELLS IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW. $$ HUFFMAN