000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152131 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI JUL 15 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 14N92W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES AT 15N95W TO 17N103W...THEN RESUMES FROM 14N108W TO 09N128W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 09N128W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 05N BETWEEN 80W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 09N BETWEEN 92W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 112W. ...DISCUSSION... A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N124W TO 26N132W. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SW OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ALONG 123W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED JUST W OF THE AREA AT 21N146W THAT CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH TO 17N125W. THE UPPER LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY N OF 16N W OF 115W. A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT INCLUDES MOST OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW INTO THE NE PACIFIC WATERS NEAR 20N118W. THIS STOUT RIDGING IS RETARDING THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGHS. THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE TROPICS E OF 115W...BUT IS INTERRUPTED BY EMBEDDED SMALL UPPER CYCLONES AT 21N93W AND 16N83W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH...ALONG THE W COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 110W AND ALSO MERGES WITH ADDITIONAL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ...ROUGHLY COVERING THE AREA FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 138W. THE LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE W COAST OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 21N93W EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD EMBEDDED IN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...REACHING A POSITION OVER THE E PACIFIC NEAR 22N108W ON SUN. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST NEAR 16N105W ON SUN WITH A LARGE AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW CONTINUING TO THE SE OF THIS SURFACE LOW. THE 1008 MB SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN COSTA RICA MAY ALSO MAINTAIN ITS CIRCULATION AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NEAR 10N86W THIS WEEKEND. UPPER DIFFLUENCE...ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE...AND CONVERGENT MONSOONAL LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED TRAINING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 15-20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... AND 10-15 KT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 15-25 KT...SEAS TO 11 FT....WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 15N E OF 115W THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NEW PULSE OF SOUTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE EQUATOR LATE SATURDAY EVENTUALLY MIXING WITH THE SW SWELLS IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW. $$ HUFFMAN 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152131 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI JUL 15 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 14N92W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES AT 15N95W TO 17N103W...THEN RESUMES FROM 14N108W TO 09N128W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 09N128W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 05N BETWEEN 80W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 09N BETWEEN 92W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 112W. ...DISCUSSION... A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N124W TO 26N132W. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SW OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ALONG 123W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED JUST W OF THE AREA AT 21N146W THAT CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH TO 17N125W. THE UPPER LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY N OF 16N W OF 115W. A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT INCLUDES MOST OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW INTO THE NE PACIFIC WATERS NEAR 20N118W. THIS STOUT RIDGING IS RETARDING THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGHS. THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE TROPICS E OF 115W...BUT IS INTERRUPTED BY EMBEDDED SMALL UPPER CYCLONES AT 21N93W AND 16N83W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH...ALONG THE W COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 110W AND ALSO MERGES WITH ADDITIONAL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ...ROUGHLY COVERING THE AREA FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 138W. THE LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE W COAST OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 21N93W EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD EMBEDDED IN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...REACHING A POSITION OVER THE E PACIFIC NEAR 22N108W ON SUN. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST NEAR 16N105W ON SUN WITH A LARGE AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW CONTINUING TO THE SE OF THIS SURFACE LOW. THE 1008 MB SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN COSTA RICA MAY ALSO MAINTAIN ITS CIRCULATION AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NEAR 10N86W THIS WEEKEND. UPPER DIFFLUENCE...ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE...AND CONVERGENT MONSOONAL LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED TRAINING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 15-20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... AND 10-15 KT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 15-25 KT...SEAS TO 11 FT....WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 15N E OF 115W THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NEW PULSE OF SOUTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE EQUATOR LATE SATURDAY EVENTUALLY MIXING WITH THE SW SWELLS IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW. $$ HUFFMAN