000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151549 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI JUL 15 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE LOW AT 11N83W WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING NW OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THIS LOW PRES TO NEAR 14N89W...THEN THE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO TO NEAR 20N107W. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 15N106W...AND CONTINUES SW TO 09N130W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THE AXIS OF THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE BEGINS...AND CONTINUES SW TO TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N82W TO 10N88W...AND N OF 10N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 93W AND 103W...AND ALSO WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N107W TO 09N129W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 79W AND 88W...AND WITHIN 15 NM LINE 07N129W TO 06N140W. ...DISCUSSION... A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER W COAST OF N AMERICA CONTINUES S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N126W TO 22N134W. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 23N116W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST W OF THE AREA AT 23N144W HAS AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING E INTO THE AREA TO THE S OF THE UPPER TROUGH...TO A CREST AT 20N133W. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY N OF 18N W OF 116W. A LONG WAVE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A CREST AT 21N114W... AND IS RETARDING THE FORWARD ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGHS. THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE TROPICS E OF 110W...BUT IS INTERRUPTED BY EMBEDDED SMALL UPPER CYCLONES AT 21N92W AND 13N82W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED MONSOON TROUGH...ALONG THE W COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED SW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 110W AND ALSO MERGES WITH ADDITIONAL DEBRIS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ...ROUGHLY COVERING THE UPPER LEVELS FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 137W. THE LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK THE UPPER TROUGH TO ALONG THE W COAST OF THE CONUS. THE UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 21N92W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD EMBEDDED IN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...REACHING A POSITION OVER THE E PACIFIC NEAR 20N104W ON SUN. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST NEAR 16N104W ON SUN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW CONTINUING TO THE SE OF THIS SURFACE LOW. THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN MAY ALSO MAINTAIN ITS CIRCULATION AS IT DRIFTS W ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE PACIFIC NEAR 10N86W LATE THIS WEEKEND. UPPER DIFFLUENCE...ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE...AND CONVERGENT MONSOONAL LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT AREAS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED TRAINING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION IS PRESENTED AT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 15-20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND 10-15 KT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 15-25 KT...SEAS TO 11 FT....WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 15N E OF 115W THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NEW PULSE OF SOUTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE EQUATOR SAT NIGHT EVENTUALLY MIXING WITH THE SW SWELLS IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW. $$ NELSON 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151549 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI JUL 15 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE LOW AT 11N83W WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING NW OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THIS LOW PRES TO NEAR 14N89W...THEN THE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO TO NEAR 20N107W. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 15N106W...AND CONTINUES SW TO 09N130W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THE AXIS OF THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE BEGINS...AND CONTINUES SW TO TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N82W TO 10N88W...AND N OF 10N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 93W AND 103W...AND ALSO WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N107W TO 09N129W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 79W AND 88W...AND WITHIN 15 NM LINE 07N129W TO 06N140W. ...DISCUSSION... A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER W COAST OF N AMERICA CONTINUES S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N126W TO 22N134W. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 23N116W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST W OF THE AREA AT 23N144W HAS AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING E INTO THE AREA TO THE S OF THE UPPER TROUGH...TO A CREST AT 20N133W. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY N OF 18N W OF 116W. A LONG WAVE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A CREST AT 21N114W... AND IS RETARDING THE FORWARD ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGHS. THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE TROPICS E OF 110W...BUT IS INTERRUPTED BY EMBEDDED SMALL UPPER CYCLONES AT 21N92W AND 13N82W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED MONSOON TROUGH...ALONG THE W COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED SW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 110W AND ALSO MERGES WITH ADDITIONAL DEBRIS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ...ROUGHLY COVERING THE UPPER LEVELS FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 137W. THE LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK THE UPPER TROUGH TO ALONG THE W COAST OF THE CONUS. THE UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 21N92W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD EMBEDDED IN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...REACHING A POSITION OVER THE E PACIFIC NEAR 20N104W ON SUN. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST NEAR 16N104W ON SUN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW CONTINUING TO THE SE OF THIS SURFACE LOW. THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN MAY ALSO MAINTAIN ITS CIRCULATION AS IT DRIFTS W ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE PACIFIC NEAR 10N86W LATE THIS WEEKEND. UPPER DIFFLUENCE...ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE...AND CONVERGENT MONSOONAL LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT AREAS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED TRAINING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION IS PRESENTED AT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 15-20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND 10-15 KT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 15-25 KT...SEAS TO 11 FT....WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 15N E OF 115W THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NEW PULSE OF SOUTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE EQUATOR SAT NIGHT EVENTUALLY MIXING WITH THE SW SWELLS IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW. $$ NELSON