000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150247 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI JUL 15 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0245 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 16N117W TO 08N131W...THEN ITCZ AXIS THROUGH 06N140W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 09N TO 12N E OF 82W TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE N OF 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 80W AND 90W...AND N OF 10N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 94W AND 105W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 110W...THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL SW FLOW OVER N PACIFIC WATERS E OF 105W. AN EARLIER 1552 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED AN AREA OF WESTERLY 20 TO 25 KT WINDS W OF THE COAST OF PANAMA AND A SEPARATE AREA OF SW WINDS OF 20 KT FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 103W...INDICATING THE SW MONSOON FLOW IS STARTING TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE. ONCE AGAIN THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL THE WESTERLY WINDS OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA AND THE BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. THE 18Z RUN OF THE GFS IS NOW COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET GLOBAL MODELS IN DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT SLOWLY ORGANIZES JUST S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE SAT THEN MOVES THE LOW W ON SUN. THE NOGAPS MODEL BY CONTRAST SHOWS A MORE MODEST 20 KT SURGE OF SW TO W WINDS...AND HAS BACKED OFF DEVELOPING LOW PRES OFF CENTRAL AMERICA AND INSTEAD IS SHOWING A LOW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO BY LATE SAT. FURTHER EAST...THE GFS REMAINS THE AGGRESSIVE OUTLIER IN DEPICTING SW TO W WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT FUNNELING INTO THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA WITH THE GFS DRIVEN WAVE WATCH MODEL BUILDING SEAS TO 12-14 FT. WAVE WATCH IS TOO HIGH THUS WILL FORECAST TO BUILD E OF 90W TO AS HIGH AS 12 FT WITH THE INCREASED S AND SW FLOW. THESE WINDS FEED INTO ANOTHER BROAD LOW ORGANIZING OVER PANAMA BY LATE SAT INTO SUN. GIVEN THE COMPLEX FLOW AND THE AS YET DEVELOPED LOW PRES AREAS THE HIGH SEAS IS A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND CONSISTS OF A BLEND OF THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF MODELS FOR THE LOW S OF THE TEHUANTEPEC. MEANWHILE...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PERSIST ALONG MONSOON TROUGH JUST INLAND ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTLINE IN ADDITION THE CONVERGENCE OF THE INCREASED SW TO W FLOW IS AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 80W AND 92W. THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES INTO THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS CONTAINED IN THE GRAPHICAST AT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. W OF 110W...ASCAT AND SHIP DATA SHOW FRESH NW FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA PERSISTING BETWEEN 1037 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 43N155W...AND TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH NW WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITHIN 24 HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH...TRADE WINDS REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY LIGHT. $$ COBB 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150247 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI JUL 15 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0245 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 16N117W TO 08N131W...THEN ITCZ AXIS THROUGH 06N140W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 09N TO 12N E OF 82W TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE N OF 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 80W AND 90W...AND N OF 10N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 94W AND 105W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 110W...THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL SW FLOW OVER N PACIFIC WATERS E OF 105W. AN EARLIER 1552 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED AN AREA OF WESTERLY 20 TO 25 KT WINDS W OF THE COAST OF PANAMA AND A SEPARATE AREA OF SW WINDS OF 20 KT FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 103W...INDICATING THE SW MONSOON FLOW IS STARTING TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE. ONCE AGAIN THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL THE WESTERLY WINDS OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA AND THE BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. THE 18Z RUN OF THE GFS IS NOW COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET GLOBAL MODELS IN DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT SLOWLY ORGANIZES JUST S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE SAT THEN MOVES THE LOW W ON SUN. THE NOGAPS MODEL BY CONTRAST SHOWS A MORE MODEST 20 KT SURGE OF SW TO W WINDS...AND HAS BACKED OFF DEVELOPING LOW PRES OFF CENTRAL AMERICA AND INSTEAD IS SHOWING A LOW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO BY LATE SAT. FURTHER EAST...THE GFS REMAINS THE AGGRESSIVE OUTLIER IN DEPICTING SW TO W WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT FUNNELING INTO THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA WITH THE GFS DRIVEN WAVE WATCH MODEL BUILDING SEAS TO 12-14 FT. WAVE WATCH IS TOO HIGH THUS WILL FORECAST TO BUILD E OF 90W TO AS HIGH AS 12 FT WITH THE INCREASED S AND SW FLOW. THESE WINDS FEED INTO ANOTHER BROAD LOW ORGANIZING OVER PANAMA BY LATE SAT INTO SUN. GIVEN THE COMPLEX FLOW AND THE AS YET DEVELOPED LOW PRES AREAS THE HIGH SEAS IS A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND CONSISTS OF A BLEND OF THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF MODELS FOR THE LOW S OF THE TEHUANTEPEC. MEANWHILE...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PERSIST ALONG MONSOON TROUGH JUST INLAND ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTLINE IN ADDITION THE CONVERGENCE OF THE INCREASED SW TO W FLOW IS AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 80W AND 92W. THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES INTO THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS CONTAINED IN THE GRAPHICAST AT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. W OF 110W...ASCAT AND SHIP DATA SHOW FRESH NW FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA PERSISTING BETWEEN 1037 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 43N155W...AND TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH NW WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITHIN 24 HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH...TRADE WINDS REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY LIGHT. $$ COBB