000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142150 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU JUL 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 16N117W TO 08N131W...THEN ITCZ AXIS THROUGH 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 11N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 93W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 83W AND 93W...AND FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 110W...THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH AN INCREASE IN SW FLOW OVER N PACIFIC WATERS E OF 105W. A 1552 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED AN AREA OF WESTERLY 20 TO 25 KT WINDS W OF THE COAST OF PANAMA AND A SEPARATE AREA OF SW WINDS OF 20 KT FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 103W...INDICATING THE SW MONSOON FLOW IS STARTING TO INCREASE AND INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE. ONCE AGAIN THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL THE WESTERLY WINDS OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA AND THE BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. HOWEVER...THE MODELS REMAIN MORE DIVERGENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE GFS THE AGGRESSIVE OUTLIER IN DEPICTING SW TO W WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT INTO CENTRAL AMERICA...FEEDING INTO BROAD LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT SLOWLY ORGANIZES OFF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE SAT. THE GFS/UKMET AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF PLACE A LOW IN THE REGION S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE SAT. THE NOGAPS BY CONTRAST SHOWS A MORE MODEST 20 KT SURGE OF SW TO W WINDS...AND HAS BACKED OFF DEVELOPING LOW PRES OFF CENTRAL AMERICA AND INSTEAD IS SHOWING A LOW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO BY LATE SAT. GIVEN THE COMPLEX FLOW AND THE AS YET DEVELOPED LOW PRES AREA THE HIGH SEAS IS A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND CONSISTS OF A BLEND OF THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF MODELS. THE MODELS DO SHOW MORE DEFINITIVE DEVELOPMENT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PERSIST ALONG MONSOON TROUGH JUST INLAND ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTLINE...AIDED BY OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW. CONVERGENCE OF THE INCREASED SW TO W FLOW IS AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 80W AND 92W. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM 08Z SHOWED SEAS OF GENERALLY 6 TO 7 FT W OF 105W...INDICATING BOTH THE WWIII AND ECWAVE MODELS ARE INITIALIZING A LITTLE TOO HIGH. SEAS WILL BUILD E OF 90W TO AS HIGH AS 12 FT WITH THE INCREASED S AND SW FLOW. W OF 110W...ASCAT AND SHIP DATA SHOW FRESH NW FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA PERSISTING BETWEEN 1037 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 43N155W...AND TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH...TRADE WINDS REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY LIGHT. $$ COBB 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142150 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU JUL 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 16N117W TO 08N131W...THEN ITCZ AXIS THROUGH 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 11N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 93W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 83W AND 93W...AND FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 110W...THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH AN INCREASE IN SW FLOW OVER N PACIFIC WATERS E OF 105W. A 1552 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED AN AREA OF WESTERLY 20 TO 25 KT WINDS W OF THE COAST OF PANAMA AND A SEPARATE AREA OF SW WINDS OF 20 KT FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 103W...INDICATING THE SW MONSOON FLOW IS STARTING TO INCREASE AND INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE. ONCE AGAIN THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL THE WESTERLY WINDS OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA AND THE BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. HOWEVER...THE MODELS REMAIN MORE DIVERGENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE GFS THE AGGRESSIVE OUTLIER IN DEPICTING SW TO W WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT INTO CENTRAL AMERICA...FEEDING INTO BROAD LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT SLOWLY ORGANIZES OFF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE SAT. THE GFS/UKMET AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF PLACE A LOW IN THE REGION S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE SAT. THE NOGAPS BY CONTRAST SHOWS A MORE MODEST 20 KT SURGE OF SW TO W WINDS...AND HAS BACKED OFF DEVELOPING LOW PRES OFF CENTRAL AMERICA AND INSTEAD IS SHOWING A LOW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO BY LATE SAT. GIVEN THE COMPLEX FLOW AND THE AS YET DEVELOPED LOW PRES AREA THE HIGH SEAS IS A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND CONSISTS OF A BLEND OF THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF MODELS. THE MODELS DO SHOW MORE DEFINITIVE DEVELOPMENT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PERSIST ALONG MONSOON TROUGH JUST INLAND ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTLINE...AIDED BY OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW. CONVERGENCE OF THE INCREASED SW TO W FLOW IS AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 80W AND 92W. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM 08Z SHOWED SEAS OF GENERALLY 6 TO 7 FT W OF 105W...INDICATING BOTH THE WWIII AND ECWAVE MODELS ARE INITIALIZING A LITTLE TOO HIGH. SEAS WILL BUILD E OF 90W TO AS HIGH AS 12 FT WITH THE INCREASED S AND SW FLOW. W OF 110W...ASCAT AND SHIP DATA SHOW FRESH NW FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA PERSISTING BETWEEN 1037 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 43N155W...AND TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH...TRADE WINDS REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY LIGHT. $$ COBB