000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU JUL 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N86W TO 16N95W RESUMES FROM 10N110W TO 09N120W...THEN ITCZ TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM 85W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 110W...THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH AN INCREASE IN SW FLOW OVER N PACIFIC WATERS E OF 105W. A 03Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT S OF WESTERN PANAMA...INDICATING THE SW MONSOON FLOW IS STARTING TO INCREASE. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG 95W S OF 08N INDICATED ONLY 15 KT AT 12Z...BUT SHIP OBSERVATIONS JUST E OF THE AREA ARE SHOWING WINDS TO 20 KT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INITIALIZE WELL WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS AND BOTH SLOW A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE MORE DIVERGENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE GFS STILL MORE AGGRESSIVE SHOWING SW TO W FLOW INTO CENTRAL AMERICA...FEEDING LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT SLOWLY ORGANIZES OFF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THE ECMWF BY CONTRAST SHOWS A MORE MODEST 20 TO 25 KT SURGE OF SW TO W WINDS...AND HAS BACKED OFF DEVELOPING LOW PRES OFF CENTRAL AMERICA AND INSTEAD IS SHOWING A LOW OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO BY LATE SAT. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER LOW IN THE SAME AREA...BUT SLIGHTLY STRONGER. FORECAST WILL FOLLOW MORE MODERATE ECMWF SOLUTION INTO THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED CONVECTION PERSISTS ALONG MONSOON TROUGH DRAPED ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTLINE...AIDED BY OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW. CONVERGENCE OF THE INCREASED SW TO W FLOW IS AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM 08Z SHOWED SEAS OF GENERALLY 6 TO 7 FT W OF 105W...INDICATING BOTH THE WWIII AND ECWAVE MODELS ARE INITIALIZING A LITTLE TOO HIGH. FRESH SOUTHERLY SWELL IS STILL LIKELY FURTHER EAST...AS EVIDENCED BY A RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION SHOWING 8 FT IN S SWELL AND LOCAL WIND WAVES NEAR 06N92W. SEAS WILL BUILD E OF 90W TO AS HIGH AS 14 FT WITH THE INCREASED S FLOW. W OF 110W...ASCAT AND SHIP DATA SHOW FRESH NW FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA PERSISTING BETWEEN 1037 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 43N155W...AND TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH...TRADE WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. $$ CHRISTENSEN 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU JUL 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N86W TO 16N95W RESUMES FROM 10N110W TO 09N120W...THEN ITCZ TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM 85W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 110W...THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH AN INCREASE IN SW FLOW OVER N PACIFIC WATERS E OF 105W. A 03Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT S OF WESTERN PANAMA...INDICATING THE SW MONSOON FLOW IS STARTING TO INCREASE. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG 95W S OF 08N INDICATED ONLY 15 KT AT 12Z...BUT SHIP OBSERVATIONS JUST E OF THE AREA ARE SHOWING WINDS TO 20 KT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INITIALIZE WELL WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS AND BOTH SLOW A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE MORE DIVERGENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE GFS STILL MORE AGGRESSIVE SHOWING SW TO W FLOW INTO CENTRAL AMERICA...FEEDING LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT SLOWLY ORGANIZES OFF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THE ECMWF BY CONTRAST SHOWS A MORE MODEST 20 TO 25 KT SURGE OF SW TO W WINDS...AND HAS BACKED OFF DEVELOPING LOW PRES OFF CENTRAL AMERICA AND INSTEAD IS SHOWING A LOW OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO BY LATE SAT. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER LOW IN THE SAME AREA...BUT SLIGHTLY STRONGER. FORECAST WILL FOLLOW MORE MODERATE ECMWF SOLUTION INTO THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED CONVECTION PERSISTS ALONG MONSOON TROUGH DRAPED ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTLINE...AIDED BY OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW. CONVERGENCE OF THE INCREASED SW TO W FLOW IS AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM 08Z SHOWED SEAS OF GENERALLY 6 TO 7 FT W OF 105W...INDICATING BOTH THE WWIII AND ECWAVE MODELS ARE INITIALIZING A LITTLE TOO HIGH. FRESH SOUTHERLY SWELL IS STILL LIKELY FURTHER EAST...AS EVIDENCED BY A RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION SHOWING 8 FT IN S SWELL AND LOCAL WIND WAVES NEAR 06N92W. SEAS WILL BUILD E OF 90W TO AS HIGH AS 14 FT WITH THE INCREASED S FLOW. W OF 110W...ASCAT AND SHIP DATA SHOW FRESH NW FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA PERSISTING BETWEEN 1037 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 43N155W...AND TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH...TRADE WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. $$ CHRISTENSEN