000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140906 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU JUL 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 13N88W TO 18N106W RESUMES FROM 16N120W TO 09N131W THEN ITCZ TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN MONSOONAL FLOW N OF 04N E OF 95W. ...DISCUSSION... ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS W-SW MONSOON WIND FLOW STARTING TO INCREASE IN THE DEEP TROPICS E OF 100W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AT 0315 UTC INDICATES WESTERLY WINDS ARE 20-25 KT NEAR 05N82W. THE OVERALL PATTERN DEPICTED BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT IN THE FINER DETAILS REGARDING LOCATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF ANY DISTINCT LOW PRES SYSTEMS WITHIN THE LARGER MONSOON CIRCULATION. THE 00Z GFS MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS 35-40 KT S OF PANAMA AND SEAS TO 18 FT IN THE 24-48 HR TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF MODEL IS SIMILAR IN ITS DEPICTION OF THE AREA OF HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS...BUT ABOUT 10 KT LOWER WITH SEAS TO 11-12 FT. SO GOING WITH A COMPOSITE APPROACH UNTIL WE GET BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL FORECASTS...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND BETTER ORGANIZED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO THIS AREA. LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE. 15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-8 FT. $$ MUNDELL 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140906 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU JUL 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 13N88W TO 18N106W RESUMES FROM 16N120W TO 09N131W THEN ITCZ TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN MONSOONAL FLOW N OF 04N E OF 95W. ...DISCUSSION... ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS W-SW MONSOON WIND FLOW STARTING TO INCREASE IN THE DEEP TROPICS E OF 100W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AT 0315 UTC INDICATES WESTERLY WINDS ARE 20-25 KT NEAR 05N82W. THE OVERALL PATTERN DEPICTED BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT IN THE FINER DETAILS REGARDING LOCATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF ANY DISTINCT LOW PRES SYSTEMS WITHIN THE LARGER MONSOON CIRCULATION. THE 00Z GFS MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS 35-40 KT S OF PANAMA AND SEAS TO 18 FT IN THE 24-48 HR TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF MODEL IS SIMILAR IN ITS DEPICTION OF THE AREA OF HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS...BUT ABOUT 10 KT LOWER WITH SEAS TO 11-12 FT. SO GOING WITH A COMPOSITE APPROACH UNTIL WE GET BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL FORECASTS...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND BETTER ORGANIZED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO THIS AREA. LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE. 15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-8 FT. $$ MUNDELL