000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140228 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU JUL 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 15N92W TO 20N108W...THEN RESUMES FROM 17N120W TO 10N130W...THEN ITCZ TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 05N E OF 95W. ...DISCUSSION... SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SOME SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW SW TO W WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE MAINLY E OF 100W CONVERGING INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH AXIS EXTENDS INLAND NEAR THE PACIFIC COASTS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THESE COUNTRIES AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF PANAMA. PATCHES OF MODERATE CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW ARE MORE CONCENTRATED N OF 5N E OF 90W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND BETTER ORGANIZED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THIS AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS RAINFALL MAY CREATE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRES IN THE LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MONSOON TROUGH. NW TO N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE BLOWING OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES LOCATED NW OF THE FORECAST AREA AND TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS TO 8 WITH THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW. THE REMNANT LOW OF CALVIN IS STILL NOTED ON SATELLITE PICTURES NEAR 17N120W. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT AROUND THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF CALVIN. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER MONSOON CIRCULATION AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...TRADE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. $$ GR 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140228 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU JUL 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 15N92W TO 20N108W...THEN RESUMES FROM 17N120W TO 10N130W...THEN ITCZ TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 05N E OF 95W. ...DISCUSSION... SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SOME SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW SW TO W WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE MAINLY E OF 100W CONVERGING INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH AXIS EXTENDS INLAND NEAR THE PACIFIC COASTS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THESE COUNTRIES AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF PANAMA. PATCHES OF MODERATE CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW ARE MORE CONCENTRATED N OF 5N E OF 90W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND BETTER ORGANIZED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THIS AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS RAINFALL MAY CREATE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRES IN THE LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MONSOON TROUGH. NW TO N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE BLOWING OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES LOCATED NW OF THE FORECAST AREA AND TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS TO 8 WITH THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW. THE REMNANT LOW OF CALVIN IS STILL NOTED ON SATELLITE PICTURES NEAR 17N120W. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT AROUND THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF CALVIN. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER MONSOON CIRCULATION AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...TRADE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. $$ GR