000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132129 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED JUL 13 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 13N88W TO 15N100W TO 20N108W...THEN RESUMES FROM 18N119W TO 08N129W...THEN ITCZ TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 96W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 100W. ...DISCUSSION... SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SOME SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW SW TO W WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE MAINLY E OF 105W CONVERGING INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT CROSSES NICARAGUA AND RUNS PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE OF EL SALVADOR A GUATEMALA THEN CONTINUES W-NM NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. AN EARLIER ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN THIS AREA AS WELL...AN INDICATION THAT SW SWELL CONTINUES TO BE PRESENT IN THE REGIONAL WATERS. PATCHES OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE NOTED EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW PARTICULARLY N OF 4N E OF 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS JUST SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF THE SW FLOW INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. THE GFS IS BECOMING MORE OF AN OUTLIER...SHOWING VERY STRONG 40 KT FLOW INTO A LOW DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN PANAMA BY FRI. THIS IS LIKELY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THE OTHER MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA...AND CONCENTRATE LOW PRES FORMATION MAINLY S OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW MORE MODEST LOW DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE NOGAPS ALSO SHOWING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND OVERDEVELOPING THE LOW. EVEN WITH NO DEEP LOW DEVELOPING...THE FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW WILL TRANSPORT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...SETTING UP A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY OVER HILLY AND MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. NW TO N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE BLOWING OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES LOCATED NW OF THE FORECAST AREA AND TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT BY THU WITH THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW. THE REMNANT LOW OF CALVIN IS STILL NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES NEAR 17N120W. THE 1750 UTC ASCAT PASS AND A WINDSAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT AROUND THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF CALVIN. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER MONSOON CIRCULATION AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...TRADE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. $$ GR/EC 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132129 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED JUL 13 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 13N88W TO 15N100W TO 20N108W...THEN RESUMES FROM 18N119W TO 08N129W...THEN ITCZ TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 96W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 100W. ...DISCUSSION... SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SOME SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW SW TO W WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE MAINLY E OF 105W CONVERGING INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT CROSSES NICARAGUA AND RUNS PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE OF EL SALVADOR A GUATEMALA THEN CONTINUES W-NM NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. AN EARLIER ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN THIS AREA AS WELL...AN INDICATION THAT SW SWELL CONTINUES TO BE PRESENT IN THE REGIONAL WATERS. PATCHES OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE NOTED EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW PARTICULARLY N OF 4N E OF 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS JUST SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF THE SW FLOW INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. THE GFS IS BECOMING MORE OF AN OUTLIER...SHOWING VERY STRONG 40 KT FLOW INTO A LOW DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN PANAMA BY FRI. THIS IS LIKELY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THE OTHER MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA...AND CONCENTRATE LOW PRES FORMATION MAINLY S OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW MORE MODEST LOW DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE NOGAPS ALSO SHOWING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND OVERDEVELOPING THE LOW. EVEN WITH NO DEEP LOW DEVELOPING...THE FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW WILL TRANSPORT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...SETTING UP A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY OVER HILLY AND MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. NW TO N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE BLOWING OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES LOCATED NW OF THE FORECAST AREA AND TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT BY THU WITH THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW. THE REMNANT LOW OF CALVIN IS STILL NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES NEAR 17N120W. THE 1750 UTC ASCAT PASS AND A WINDSAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT AROUND THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF CALVIN. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER MONSOON CIRCULATION AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...TRADE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. $$ GR/EC