000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130905 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED JUL 13 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 12N86W TO 17N105W TO 21N109W RESUMES FROM 19N120W TO 06N132W THEN ITCZ TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 102W. ...DISCUSSION... WINDSAT PASS AT 0200 UTC SHOWED WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT AROUND THE REMNANT LOW OF CALVIN. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER MONSOON CIRCULATION AND DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. GFS GLOBAL AND WW3 WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BY THU NIGHT WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 6 FT OR LESS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA W OF 115W. HOWEVER S OF 5N E OF 115W THE GFS AND WW3 MODELS PRESENT A MUCH DIFFERENT FORECAST. W-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT E OF 90W AND ALLOW WIND-DRIVEN SEAS TO BUILD TO 13-14 FT NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE E PART OF THE AREA TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. STRONG W-SW MONSOON WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SETTING UP A POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY OVER HILLY AND MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. $$ MUNDELL 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130905 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED JUL 13 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 12N86W TO 17N105W TO 21N109W RESUMES FROM 19N120W TO 06N132W THEN ITCZ TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 102W. ...DISCUSSION... WINDSAT PASS AT 0200 UTC SHOWED WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT AROUND THE REMNANT LOW OF CALVIN. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER MONSOON CIRCULATION AND DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. GFS GLOBAL AND WW3 WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BY THU NIGHT WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 6 FT OR LESS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA W OF 115W. HOWEVER S OF 5N E OF 115W THE GFS AND WW3 MODELS PRESENT A MUCH DIFFERENT FORECAST. W-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT E OF 90W AND ALLOW WIND-DRIVEN SEAS TO BUILD TO 13-14 FT NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE E PART OF THE AREA TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. STRONG W-SW MONSOON WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SETTING UP A POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY OVER HILLY AND MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. $$ MUNDELL