000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130235 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED JUL 13 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 12N87W TO 14N100W TO 20N106W RESUMES FROM 18N118W TO 07N132W THEN ITCZ TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 10N E OF 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS ALSO SEEN WITHIN 90 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 98W AND 101W...AND BETWEEN 105W AND 108W. ...DISCUSSION... SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STILL SHOWING A WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF CALVIN LOCATED NEAR 19N118W. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES W OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE 1812 UTC ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 15 KT WINDS ON SWATH EDGE ABOUT 40 NM NW OF THE CENTER. THE REMNANT OF CALVIN HAS WEAKENED THE PRES GRADIENT W OF 110W...KEEPING TRADE WIND FLOW FAIRLY LIGHT. SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT ARE NOTED IN MIXED N AND SW SWELL FROM 20N TO 29N BETWEEN 111W AND 120W. AS THE REMNANT OF CALVIN TOTALLY DISSIPATES...THE PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES NW OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER PRES OVER MEXICO...RESULTING IN NW WINDS OF 20 KT JUST OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 24-48 HOURS. A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL FINALLY TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE N WATERS. FURTHER E...AN UNUSUALLY STRONG MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE E PART OF THE AREA TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. STRONG W-SW WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS CONTINUE TO DOMINATED THE REGIONAL WATERS MAINLY E OF 125W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT. E OF 100W...EXPECT BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 13-14 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG MONSOONAL FLOW IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS. $$ GR 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130235 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED JUL 13 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 12N87W TO 14N100W TO 20N106W RESUMES FROM 18N118W TO 07N132W THEN ITCZ TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 10N E OF 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS ALSO SEEN WITHIN 90 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 98W AND 101W...AND BETWEEN 105W AND 108W. ...DISCUSSION... SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STILL SHOWING A WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF CALVIN LOCATED NEAR 19N118W. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES W OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE 1812 UTC ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 15 KT WINDS ON SWATH EDGE ABOUT 40 NM NW OF THE CENTER. THE REMNANT OF CALVIN HAS WEAKENED THE PRES GRADIENT W OF 110W...KEEPING TRADE WIND FLOW FAIRLY LIGHT. SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT ARE NOTED IN MIXED N AND SW SWELL FROM 20N TO 29N BETWEEN 111W AND 120W. AS THE REMNANT OF CALVIN TOTALLY DISSIPATES...THE PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES NW OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER PRES OVER MEXICO...RESULTING IN NW WINDS OF 20 KT JUST OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 24-48 HOURS. A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL FINALLY TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE N WATERS. FURTHER E...AN UNUSUALLY STRONG MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE E PART OF THE AREA TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. STRONG W-SW WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS CONTINUE TO DOMINATED THE REGIONAL WATERS MAINLY E OF 125W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT. E OF 100W...EXPECT BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 13-14 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG MONSOONAL FLOW IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS. $$ GR