000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122134 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE JUL 12 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N86W TO 14N100W TO 19N105W RESUMES FROM 18N118W TO 07N135W THEN ITCZ TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 95W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 105W AND 108W. ...DISCUSSION... VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE IS STILL SHOWING A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF CALVIN LOCATED NEAR 19N118W. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES W OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED 15-20 KT WINDS ON SWATH EDGE ABOUT 40 NM NW OF THE CENTER. THE REMNANT OF CALVIN HAS WEAKENED THE PRES GRADIENT W OF 110W...KEEPING TRADE WIND FLOW FAIRLY LIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT ARE NOTED IN MIXED N AND SW SWELL PARTICULARLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 130W WITH 17-18 SEC LONG PERIOD SWELLS EXTENDING FROM PANAMA TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP TROPICS E OF 120W THROUGH WED. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE E PART OF THE AREA. WHILE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE S OF EL SALVADOR...THE EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INTENSE MONSOON TROUGH WILL STRETCH ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE MONSOONAL FLOW WILL ADVECT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. STRONG W-SW WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HILLY OR MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. $$ GR 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122134 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE JUL 12 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N86W TO 14N100W TO 19N105W RESUMES FROM 18N118W TO 07N135W THEN ITCZ TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 95W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 105W AND 108W. ...DISCUSSION... VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE IS STILL SHOWING A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF CALVIN LOCATED NEAR 19N118W. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES W OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED 15-20 KT WINDS ON SWATH EDGE ABOUT 40 NM NW OF THE CENTER. THE REMNANT OF CALVIN HAS WEAKENED THE PRES GRADIENT W OF 110W...KEEPING TRADE WIND FLOW FAIRLY LIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT ARE NOTED IN MIXED N AND SW SWELL PARTICULARLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 130W WITH 17-18 SEC LONG PERIOD SWELLS EXTENDING FROM PANAMA TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP TROPICS E OF 120W THROUGH WED. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE E PART OF THE AREA. WHILE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE S OF EL SALVADOR...THE EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INTENSE MONSOON TROUGH WILL STRETCH ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE MONSOONAL FLOW WILL ADVECT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. STRONG W-SW WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HILLY OR MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. $$ GR