000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120925 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE JUL 12 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N85W TO 19N106W RESUMES FROM 19N118W TO 06N134W THEN ITCZ TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF 92W AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 99W AND 103W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REMNANT LOW OF CALVIN CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES WNW OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AN ASCAT PASS AT 0544 UTC SHOWED 15-20 KT WINDS ON SWATH EDGE ABOUT 40 NM NW OF THE CENTER. LINGERING N SWELL GENERATED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS LAST WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 117W AND 122W. A WEAK TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE WEST COAST WILL DISRUPT THE PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA...ALLOWING SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW 8 FT TONIGHT. GFS MODEL SHOWS WINDS APPROACHING 20 KT WED NIGHT AND THU W OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE E PART OF THE AREA. WHILE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE S OF EL SALVADOR...THE EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INTENSE MONSOON TROUGH WILL STRETCH ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE MONSOONAL FLOW WILL ADVECT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.0 INCHES...INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. STRONG W-SW WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND... AND PERHAPS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HILLY OR MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. $$ MUNDELL 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120925 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE JUL 12 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N85W TO 19N106W RESUMES FROM 19N118W TO 06N134W THEN ITCZ TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF 92W AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 99W AND 103W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REMNANT LOW OF CALVIN CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES WNW OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AN ASCAT PASS AT 0544 UTC SHOWED 15-20 KT WINDS ON SWATH EDGE ABOUT 40 NM NW OF THE CENTER. LINGERING N SWELL GENERATED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS LAST WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 117W AND 122W. A WEAK TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE WEST COAST WILL DISRUPT THE PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA...ALLOWING SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW 8 FT TONIGHT. GFS MODEL SHOWS WINDS APPROACHING 20 KT WED NIGHT AND THU W OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE E PART OF THE AREA. WHILE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE S OF EL SALVADOR...THE EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INTENSE MONSOON TROUGH WILL STRETCH ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE MONSOONAL FLOW WILL ADVECT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.0 INCHES...INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. STRONG W-SW WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND... AND PERHAPS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HILLY OR MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. $$ MUNDELL