000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120315 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE JUL 12 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS FROM 10N85W TO 11N90W TO 19N105W THEN RESUMES AT 19N117W TO 10N126W TO 06N137W. ITCZ CONTINUES TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 11N E OF 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 97W AND 105W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REMNANT LOW OF CALVIN IS LOCATED W OF ISLA CLARION NEAR 19N117W WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. DEEP CONVECTION NO LONGER IS PRESENT NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES WNW OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. N SWELL GENERATED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA HAVE MOVED INTO THE NE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 130W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS 6-8 FT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAINLY N OF 27N. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 130W WITH 17-18 SEC LONG PERIOD SWELLS EXTENDING FROM PANAMA TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP TROPICS E OF 130W THROUGH WED. LOOKING AHEAD...A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE NIGHT. IT WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO AN UNUSUALLY STRONG MONSOON TROUGH BY THURSDAY. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE E PART OF THE AREA. THIS STRENGTHENED MONSOONAL FLOW WILL ADVECT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS STRONG MONSOONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE THIS DEVELOPING DANGEROUS SITUATION. $$ FORMOSA/AL 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120315 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE JUL 12 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS FROM 10N85W TO 11N90W TO 19N105W THEN RESUMES AT 19N117W TO 10N126W TO 06N137W. ITCZ CONTINUES TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 11N E OF 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 97W AND 105W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REMNANT LOW OF CALVIN IS LOCATED W OF ISLA CLARION NEAR 19N117W WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. DEEP CONVECTION NO LONGER IS PRESENT NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES WNW OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. N SWELL GENERATED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA HAVE MOVED INTO THE NE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 130W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS 6-8 FT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAINLY N OF 27N. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 130W WITH 17-18 SEC LONG PERIOD SWELLS EXTENDING FROM PANAMA TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP TROPICS E OF 130W THROUGH WED. LOOKING AHEAD...A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE NIGHT. IT WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO AN UNUSUALLY STRONG MONSOON TROUGH BY THURSDAY. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE E PART OF THE AREA. THIS STRENGTHENED MONSOONAL FLOW WILL ADVECT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS STRONG MONSOONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE THIS DEVELOPING DANGEROUS SITUATION. $$ FORMOSA/AL