000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112113 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON JUL 11 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N85W TO 11N90W TO 19N105W THEN RESUMES FROM 23N113W TO 19N117W TO 10N129W TO 06N137W THEN ITCZ TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 11N E OF 91W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 95W AND 106W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REMNANT LOW OF CALVIN IS LOCATED W OF ISLA CLARION NEAR 19N117W WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. DEEP CONVECTION NO LONGER IS PRESENT NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT MOVES WNW OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. N SWELL GENERATED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AS DEPICTED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA...HAVE MOVED INTO NE PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 130W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS 6-8 FT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OFF WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAINLY N OF 27N IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NW OF AREA. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 130W WITH 17-18 SEC LONG PERIOD SWELLS EXTENDING FROM PANAMA TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP TROPICS E OF 130W THROUGH WED. LOOKING AHEAD...A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE NIGHT. IT WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO AN UNUSUALLY STRONG MONSOON TROUGH BY THURSDAY. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE E PART OF THE AREA. THIS STRENGTHENED MONSOONAL FLOW WILL ADVECT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS STRONG MONSOONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE THIS DEVELOPING DANGEROUS SITUATION. $$ FORMOSA/AL 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112113 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON JUL 11 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N85W TO 11N90W TO 19N105W THEN RESUMES FROM 23N113W TO 19N117W TO 10N129W TO 06N137W THEN ITCZ TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 11N E OF 91W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 95W AND 106W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REMNANT LOW OF CALVIN IS LOCATED W OF ISLA CLARION NEAR 19N117W WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. DEEP CONVECTION NO LONGER IS PRESENT NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT MOVES WNW OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. N SWELL GENERATED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AS DEPICTED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA...HAVE MOVED INTO NE PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 130W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS 6-8 FT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OFF WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAINLY N OF 27N IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NW OF AREA. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 130W WITH 17-18 SEC LONG PERIOD SWELLS EXTENDING FROM PANAMA TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP TROPICS E OF 130W THROUGH WED. LOOKING AHEAD...A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE NIGHT. IT WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO AN UNUSUALLY STRONG MONSOON TROUGH BY THURSDAY. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE E PART OF THE AREA. THIS STRENGTHENED MONSOONAL FLOW WILL ADVECT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS STRONG MONSOONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE THIS DEVELOPING DANGEROUS SITUATION. $$ FORMOSA/AL